Ripple CEO's 2026 Vision Stands Despite Declining XRP ETF Inflows

Spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $38.07 million in inflows last week, a sharp decline from the November high of $243 million. This reflects weakening institutional interest in XRP ETFs, which have seen inflows gradually drop since December 5. The cumulative assets in these ETFs now exceed $1.47 billion, accounting for 1.16% of the XRP market cap.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has expressed confidence in the company's 2026 outlook, calling the year "more consequential". Despite the drop in institutional demand, Garlinghouse emphasized Ripple's progress in 2025, including acquisitions of Hidden Road and GTreasury. He also highlighted Ripple's expanding licensing portfolio, including a recent UK EMI license, as a strategic advantage.

Retail demand for XRP appears to be stabilizing. Futures Open Interest (OI) averaged $4.19 billion on Wednesday, slightly up from $3.93 billion the previous day. This suggests a modest increase in retail investor participation, though it remains below the year's high of $4.55 billion. The rise in OI indicates a cautious return to risk-taking among investors.

Why Did This Happen?

The drop in XRP ETF inflows coincided with a decline in the XRP price. Over the past week, XRP fell 3.77% to $2.06 from a high of $2.39. The price correction has affected investor sentiment, particularly among institutional investors. However, whale activity in XRP hit a three-month high, signaling continued interest at the higher end of the market.

Garlinghouse's bullish stance contrasts with the market's current performance. He has stated that Ripple will focus on infrastructure development and asset adoption rather than chasing market hype. This approach aligns with Ripple's long-term strategy to build on its acquisitions and expand its licensing portfolio.

How Did Markets React?

XRP's price volatility has drawn attention from traders and analysts. On Wednesday, XRP was trading at $2.15 after a brief rally to $2.19. The price movement reflects broader market sentiment, which has been influenced by macroeconomic factors such as U.S. inflation data. Despite the short-term correction, XRP ETFs have recorded cumulative inflows of $1.25 billion since their launch in November.

Technical indicators suggest the XRP price could face further downward pressure. The RSI has fallen to 57, and the MACD line is poised to cross below the signal line. A break below the $2.00 level could accelerate the downtrend toward $1.81, a level seen in early January.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are closely watching the divergence between XRP ETF inflows and the token's price. Cumulative inflows have exceeded $1.5 billion across multiple ETFs, indicating that new capital is still flowing into the XRP ecosystem. However, the token's price has dropped 18.11% over the past three months. This suggests that ETF demand is being driven by dollar-cost averaging or a shift from direct token ownership.

Garlinghouse's focus on infrastructure development and licensing could play a role in XRP's long-term performance. The CEO has emphasized Ripple's strategic position in the global payments network, with reported transaction volume exceeding $95 billion in a recent year. If XRP continues to be used as a settlement asset, ETF demand could be supported by transactional utility rather than speculative positioning.

Standard Chartered has projected an XRP price of around $12.50 by 2028, assuming continued institutional adoption. This forecast hinges on XRP ETFs maintaining regulatory clarity and building institutional infrastructure. A move from the current low-$2 range to mid- to high-single digits would represent a 5x–6x increase in the token's price.

The XRP ETF market is expanding with multiple products listed across different exchanges. XRPI and XRPR are gaining traction, while Bitwise's XRP ETF continues to attract sizeable inflows. For example, the Bitwise XRP ETF saw $4.51 million in net inflows on January 9, 2026. This level of activity suggests that institutional capital is becoming more comfortable with XRP exposure through regulated vehicles.