Rigetti's Stock Surges 6.98% on NVIDIA Partnership Trading Volume Jumps to 550M Ranking 225th in Activity

Market Snapshot

Rigetti Computing (RGTI) delivered a notable performance on February 25, 2026, with a 6.98% increase in its stock price, reflecting renewed investor interest. The company’s trading volume surged to $0.55 billion, a 35.44% jump from the previous day, securing its position at rank 225 in terms of trading activity. While the volume spike suggests heightened market engagement, the stock’s price movement remains modest compared to its 52-week range of $6.86 to $58.15. This performance aligns with broader anticipation for Rigetti’s Q4 2025 earnings report, scheduled for March 4, 2026, where analysts project a loss of $0.05 per share. The recent uptick in trading activity may indicate position-building ahead of the earnings release or reactions to strategic developments, including its partnership with NVIDIA for quantum integration.

Key Drivers

The recent stock price increase of 6.98% appears partially attributable to Rigetti’s Q3 2025 earnings performance, which showed a 40% positive EPS surprise. The company reported a loss of $0.03 per share, outperforming the forecasted $0.05 loss, despite missing revenue expectations of $2.17 million with actual revenue of $1.9 million. This mixed performance highlights the company’s struggle to meet revenue targets while demonstrating some resilience in earnings. However, the gross margin contraction to 21% from 51% year-over-year and a rise in operating expenses to $21 million from $18.6 million in Q3 2024 underscore persistent operational challenges. These factors likely tempered investor enthusiasm, as evidenced by the 6.39% share price decline following the Q3 report. The recent rebound may reflect a partial correction to that selloff or optimism about future cost management.

A strategic partnership with NVIDIA for quantum integration has also emerged as a key catalyst. Announced in Q3 2025, the collaboration aims to advance quantum computing capabilities, aligning with Rigetti’s roadmap to achieve quantum advantage by 2027-2029. This partnership not only validates Rigetti’s technological ambitions but also positions it to leverage NVIDIA’s expertise in AI and hardware, potentially accelerating product development. CEO Subodh Kulkarni’s targets—100+ qubits by late 2025 and 1,000+ qubits by 2027—further reinforce the company’s long-term vision. Such milestones could attract institutional investors, as reflected in the 35.4% institutional ownership stake, and provide a narrative for future growth despite current financial constraints.

Analyst sentiment, however, remains mixed. While MarketBeat’s Moderate Buy consensus (8 Buys, 3 Holds, 1 Sell) and an average price target of $32.60 suggest cautious optimism, recent downgrades from firms like Wall Street Zen (Sell) and TD Cowen (Hold) highlight market skepticism. The disparity in analyst ratings may reflect diverging views on Rigetti’s ability to scale its quantum infrastructure and monetize its technology in a competitive landscape. Rosenblatt Securities’ $40.00 price target contrasts with the current stock price of $16.48, indicating potential for upward movement if the company meets its technical milestones or secures additional partnerships. Conversely, institutional ownership and the beta of 1.69—a measure of volatility relative to the market—suggest the stock remains speculative, with significant price swings likely in response to earnings or strategic developments.

Looking ahead, the upcoming Q4 2025 earnings report on March 4, 2026, will be critical. Analysts forecast a $0.05 EPS loss, but the company’s revenue guidance of $22.5 million for FY2026 provides a benchmark for performance evaluation. If Rigetti meets or exceeds these expectations, it could bolster confidence in its cost-cutting measures and revenue growth strategies. Conversely, a further revenue miss or widening losses may pressure the stock, particularly given its high P/E ratio of -12.68. The conference call scheduled for 5:00 PM ET on March 4 will also offer insights into management’s strategic priorities, including progress on the NVIDIA partnership and qubit development timelines. Investors are likely to scrutinize these details for clues about the company’s ability to transition from a research-focused entity to a commercially viable business.

In summary, Rigetti’s stock performance is influenced by a combination of near-term earnings volatility, strategic partnerships, and long-term growth prospects. While operational inefficiencies and mixed analyst sentiment pose risks, the company’s ambitious roadmap and collaborations with industry leaders like NVIDIA provide a foundation for potential upside. The coming weeks will test investor confidence as the market awaits Q4 results and clarity on Rigetti’s path to profitability.