Rigetti Slides 11.6% Amid Analyst Downgrade and Government Delays, Yet Maintains 38th in $2B Volume Rank

Market Snapshot

Rigetti Computing (RGTI) closed at $39.12 on November 4, 2025, marking a 11.63% decline from the previous trading session. The stock’s sharp drop lagged behind broader market benchmarks, as the S&P 500 rose 0.17%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.46%. Despite the downturn, RGTI maintained a strong volume presence, with a trading volume of $2.00 billion, ranking 38th in the U.S. market by dollar volume. This performance followed a year-to-date rally of 156.3%, significantly outpacing the Computer and Technology sector’s 14.6% gain.

Key Drivers

The primary catalyst for RGTI’s double-digit decline was a downgrade from B. Riley, which cut its rating to Neutral and raised its price target to $42. The analyst highlighted concerns about delays in U.S. government funding authorizations, which pose a meaningful risk to near-term sales. Despite recent contract wins, including a $5.8 million Air Force Research Laboratory deal and two $5.7 million orders for 9-qubit Novera systems, the analyst warned that slower government approvals could stretch the sales cycle. Rigetti’s cash position of $572 million and a quarterly burn rate of $19 million were deemed manageable, but investors reacted swiftly to the research note, trimming exposure ahead of the company’s third-quarter earnings report on November 10.

A secondary factor was the broader market’s anticipation of RGTI’s upcoming earnings. The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects a third-quarter loss of $0.05 per share, reflecting a 37.5% improvement from the prior-year period, alongside revenue of $2.39 million, a 0.42% increase year-over-year. However, the lack of positive estimate revisions over the past 30 days—coupled with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold)—suggests muted optimism among analysts. The company’s forward-looking guidance on revenue trends, gross-margin evolution, and system shipments will be critical for investors, particularly as RGTI navigates its transition from R&D to commercialization.

Rigetti’s strategic partnerships also played a role in shaping investor sentiment. The company’s alignment with NVIDIA’s NVQLink initiative, which integrates quantum processors with GPU infrastructure, has positioned it as a key player in hybrid quantum-classical computing. Additionally, its chiplet-based roadmap and progress in reducing error rates for the Cepheus-1-36Q system have drawn attention from enterprises experimenting with quantum-AI workflows. However, these advancements have yet to translate into consistent revenue growth, as Q2 earnings reported a 41% year-over-year decline in revenue to $1.8 million.

The quantum computing sector’s volatility further amplified RGTI’s price movement. Competitors like IonQ (IONQ) and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) have also faced stock fluctuations amid speculative trading and macroeconomic uncertainty. Xanadu’s upcoming $3.6 billion Nasdaq debut via SPAC merger added to the sector’s dynamism, though Rigetti’s photonic approach and partnerships with government agencies remain distinct differentiators.

In summary, RGTI’s sharp decline reflects a combination of analyst caution, regulatory risks, and the sector’s speculative nature. While the company has demonstrated technological progress and secured high-profile contracts, its ability to convert these into sustainable revenue will be pivotal in the coming quarters. Investors will closely monitor the November 10 earnings report and subsequent guidance to assess whether the current valuation aligns with its long-term commercialization potential.