Rigetti Computing Surges 7.04%—Is Quantum Computing’s Next Breakthrough on the Horizon?

Summary
• Rigetti Computing (RGTI) surges 7.04% to $15.115, hitting a 2025 high of $15.88
• Analysts raise price targets to $18, citing quantum computing advancements and U.S. government funding rumors
• Intraday volatility spikes with $1.58 range (intraday low: $14.30, high: $15.88)

Rigetti Computing has ignited a 7.04% rally in a single trading session, driven by a surge in quantum computing sector momentum and a bullish price target revision to $18. The stock’s 52-week high of $21.42 remains tantalizingly out of reach, but its 15.115 price point represents a 6.8% discount to that level. With a 7.6% turnover rate and a 25.9x dynamic PE ratio, the stock is attracting both institutional and retail attention amid its 47% year-to-date rally. The question now is whether this surge reflects a sustainable shift in quantum computing adoption or a short-term speculative frenzy.

Quantum Computing Breakthroughs and Analyst Optimism Ignite RGTI
Rigetti’s intraday surge is fueled by a confluence of factors. First, Needham analyst N. Quinn Bolton raised the price target to $18, citing momentum in quantum computing research and the potential impact of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Quantum Leadership Act. Second, Rigetti’s recent announcement of a 99.5% two-qubit gate fidelity on its 36-qubit system—a critical benchmark for error correction—has positioned it as a key player in the race for scalable quantum computing. Additionally, the stock’s 47% year-to-date gain has attracted speculative buying as investors anticipate a potential stock split or further regulatory tailwinds. The stock’s 7.6% turnover rate underscores strong liquidity, while the 25.9x PE ratio suggests market optimism about long-term revenue potential despite current $1.5M quarterly revenue.

Hardware Sector Gains Momentum as IonQ Trails Rigetti’s Surge
The hardware sector, led by quantum computing innovators, has seen renewed interest. Rigetti’s 7.04% rally outpaces IonQ (IONQ)’s 2.7% intraday gain, despite both companies competing in the quantum computing space. Rigetti’s recent technological milestones, including its Ankaa-3 system’s error-rate improvements, have positioned it as a more compelling short-term play compared to IonQ’s 99.9% gate fidelity but trapped-ion approach. Meanwhile, broader hardware sector news, such as TSMC’s $300,000 H20 AI chip order and AMD’s Ryzen Threadripper 9980X launch, highlights growing demand for advanced computing infrastructure. However, Rigetti’s stock performance remains decoupled from sector peers, reflecting its unique focus on quantum computing commercialization.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls and Strategic Gamma Exposure
• 200-day SMA: 9.415 (below current price) • RSI: 56.8 (neutral) • MACD: 0.578 (bullish) • Bollinger Bands: 11.65–17.76 (mid-band)

Rigetti’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish correction amid a long-term bullish trend. The 200-day SMA at $9.415 provides a critical support level, while the RSI near 56.8 indicates neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The MACD histogram (-0.255) hints at waning momentum, but the 0.578 MACD line remains positive. For options traders, the RGTI20250808C16 and RGTI20250815C16 contracts stand out: both offer high leverage (48.95% and 17.85%) and implied volatility (87.53% and 107.51%), making them ideal for a 5% upside scenario. The RGTI20250808C16 has a delta of 0.323 and theta of -0.0946, balancing directional exposure with time decay, while the RGTI20250815C16 (delta 0.434, theta -0.0687) offers higher gamma (0.133) for rapid price swings. If $16.50 breaks, aggressive bulls may consider RGTI20250815C16 into a retest of the $17.76 upper Bollinger Band.

Backtest Rigetti Computing Stock Performance
The backtest of RGTI's performance after a 7% intraday surge shows mixed results. While the stock experienced a maximum return of 15.22% on day 52, the 3-day win rate and 10-day win rate were both 52.55%, indicating that the stock had a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. However, the 30-day win rate dropped to 46.92%, suggesting that the stock's performance may not be consistently positive in the medium term. Overall, the backtest indicates that RGTI can be a profitable investment in the short term, but there is a risk of underperformance in the medium term.

Quantum Leap or Speculative Bubble? Watch for $16.50 Breakout
Rigetti’s 7.04% rally reflects a pivotal inflection point in its quantum computing journey, but sustainability hinges on maintaining its 99.5% gate fidelity edge and securing government contracts under the proposed Quantum Leadership Act. Technicals suggest a short-term pullback to the $14.50 strike (RGTI20250808P14.5) before resuming the 52-week high push. Investors should monitor the $16.50 level, which would validate the $18 price target and trigger a wave of call option buying. Meanwhile, sector leader IonQ (IONQ) gaining 2.7% highlights the broader quantum computing narrative, but Rigetti’s superconducting approach and recent breakthroughs make it the more compelling near-term play. If $16.50 breaks, RGTI20250815C16 offers a high-gamma, high-leverage path to capitalize on the next leg of the rally.