Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Surges 4.33% on Quantum Computing Momentum and Meme Stock Frenzy

Summary
• Rigetti Computing (RGTI) surges 4.33% intraday to $32.825, hitting a 52-week high of $34.40
• Intraday range spans $29.71 to $34.40, with $125.88M turnover (39.7% of float)
• Analysts at B. Riley and Needham raise price targets to $35–$20, while government contracts and quantum tech progress drive optimism

Rigetti Computing’s stock has erupted on a confluence of speculative fervor and strategic advancements. A $5.8M Air Force contract, a $350M equity raise, and a 99.5% gate fidelity milestone for its Cepheus-1-36Q quantum processor have ignited retail and institutional demand. The stock’s 4.33% surge reflects both technical progress and meme stock dynamics, with options volume surging as traders bet on volatility.

Government Contracts and Analyst Upgrades Fuel Rigetti's Surge
Rigetti’s rally stems from a $5.8M Air Force Research Laboratory contract to advance quantum networking, paired with a $350M equity raise that bolstered its $571.6M cash reserves. Analysts at B. Riley raised their price target to $35 per share, while Needham and Craig-Hallum maintained bullish ratings. The stock’s momentum also reflects meme stock dynamics, with retail traders on Reddit and X amplifying demand. Despite a $39.7M Q2 net loss, the company’s 36-qubit Cepheus-1-36Q system and partnerships with Quanta and Microsoft Azure signal progress toward scalable quantum computing.

Quantum Computing Outperforms Tech Hardware Sector as IBM Slides
The Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals sector, led by IBM (-1.44% intraday), underperformed Rigetti’s 4.33% surge. IBM’s decline highlights sector-wide skepticism toward legacy tech firms, while quantum computing stocks like RGTI and IonQ (IONQ) benefit from speculative inflows. Rigetti’s government contracts and superconducting qubit roadmap position it as a speculative play on the AI-quantum computing crossover, contrasting with IBM’s traditional enterprise hardware focus.

Options and ETFs for Quantum Computing Volatility
• MACD: 3.32 (Signal: 1.81, Histogram: 1.51) – bullish momentum
• RSI: 97.24 – overbought
• Bollinger Bands: $29.46 (Upper), $19.11 (Middle), $8.76 (Lower) – price near upper band
• 200D MA: $12.32 – far below current price

Rigetti’s technicals suggest short-term overbought conditions, but bullish momentum persists. Key levels to watch: $34.40 (52W high), $31.46 (prev close), and $29.71 (intraday low). The stock’s 155%–184% implied volatility in October options reflects high expectations. Two top options:

• RGTI20251003C32.5 (Call, $32.5 strike, Oct 3 expiry)
- IV: 184.31% (high volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 8.16% (high gearing)
- Delta: 0.56 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.2548 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0396 (moderate sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $8.87M (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($34.46): $1.96/share. This call offers aggressive leverage for a continued rally, though theta decay demands swift execution.

• RGTI20251003C32 (Call, $32 strike, Oct 3 expiry)
- IV: 167.84% (high volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 8.41% (high gearing)
- Delta: 0.58 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.2387 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0432 (moderate sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $676.69K (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($34.46): $2.46/share. This contract balances leverage and liquidity, ideal for a short-term breakout.

Aggressive bulls may consider RGTI20251003C32.5 into a test of $34.40, while conservative traders might use RGTI20251003C32 for a lower-cost entry. Both contracts require tight stop-losses due to theta decay and overbought RSI.

Backtest Rigetti Computing Stock Performance
Below is an interactive back-test module. (If it does not load automatically, please refresh or click it.)Key take-aways • The strategy posted strong absolute returns but came with very large drawdowns—risk management is critical. • A 5-day exit window was used as a pragmatic default to capture short-term momentum; feel free to adjust and re-run if you prefer a different horizon.

Quantum Hype or Fundamental Breakthrough? Watch $34.40 and Analyst Targets
Rigetti’s 4.33% surge reflects a blend of speculative fervor and technical progress, but fundamentals remain weak. With a $21.42 consensus target and $39.7M Q2 net loss, the stock’s $32.825 price is untethered from earnings. Investors should monitor the $34.40 52W high for a potential breakout or breakdown. If the stock closes above $34.40, it could validate the $35 B. Riley target; a retest of $29.71 would signal waning momentum. Meanwhile, sector leader IBM’s -1.44% decline underscores the sector’s mixed outlook. For now, hold short-term bullish positions but cap risk at 5% of portfolio.