Rigetti Computing Soars 13.36% on Intraday Surge: What's Fueling the Quantum Computing Play?

Summary
• Rigetti Computing (RGTI) surges 13.36% to $26.935, hitting an intraday high of $27.67
• Turnover jumps to 40.16 million shares, with 12.42% of float traded
• Sector peers like Intel (INTC) dip 0.67%, signaling divergent momentum
• Options activity surges, with RGTI20251226C27 seeing 772,203 turnover

Rigetti Computing’s explosive intraday rally has outpaced a mixed semiconductor sector, driven by a confluence of global chip manufacturing shifts and speculative positioning. With the stock trading near its 52-week high of $58.15, the move reflects heightened investor appetite for quantum computing exposure amid China’s push for domestic chip tool adoption and TSMC’s Arizona expansion plans.

China’s Chip Tool Push and TSMC’s Arizona Expansion Fuel Rigetti’s Surge
Rigetti’s 13.36% intraday gain stems from two pivotal sector developments: China’s reported 50% rule mandating domestic chip tool adoption, which pressures Korean suppliers and indirectly elevates demand for alternative quantum computing solutions, and TSMC’s accelerated Arizona 3nm production timeline. These factors have amplified speculative buying in RGTI, which is positioned to benefit from AI-driven chip demand and U.S. manufacturing reshoring. Additionally, Micron’s admission of a 55%–60% memory supply shortfall has heightened sector-wide volatility, with RGTI’s quantum computing focus attracting capital seeking long-term growth in a fragmented market.

Semiconductor Sector Volatility as Rigetti Outpaces Peers
While Rigetti Computing’s 13.36% gain defies the sector’s broader caution—evidenced by Intel’s 0.67% decline—broader semiconductor dynamics remain turbulent. Micron’s 55%–60% memory supply crunch and Samsung’s SOCAMM2 ramp-up for NVIDIA highlight sector-wide bottlenecks. However, RGTI’s quantum computing niche, uncorrelated with traditional memory cycles, has drawn inflows amid TSMC’s U.S. expansion and China’s EUV lithography ambitions. This divergence underscores RGTI’s role as a speculative proxy for long-term quantum infrastructure bets.

Leverage RGTI’s Volatility with Gamma-Driven Calls and ETF Positioning
• 200-day average: $19.27 (well below current price)
• RSI: 50.85 (neutral, near 50% level)
• MACD: -1.89 (signal line at -1.89, histogram -0.005)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper at $29.72, Middle at $25.54, Lower at $21.36

RGTI’s technicals suggest a breakout scenario, with price hovering near the upper Bollinger Band and RSI stabilizing at 50.85. The 200-day average at $19.27 provides a strong support floor, while the 30-day support zone ($25.41–$25.63) aligns with key options activity. Aggressive bulls should target a break above $27.67 (intraday high) to validate the rally. The 2025-12-26 call options at $27 and $26.5 strikes offer optimal leverage given their high gamma and moderate delta.

Top Option 1: RGTI20251226C27
• Strike: $27 | Expiration: 2025-12-26 | IV: 84.65% | Leverage: 29.31% | Delta: 0.4726 | Theta: -0.2024 | Gamma: 0.1506 | Turnover: 772,203
• IV (Implied Volatility): High volatility expectations
• Leverage: Amplifies returns on price moves
• Delta: Moderate sensitivity to price changes
• Theta: Rapid time decay, ideal for short-term plays
• Gamma: High sensitivity to price acceleration
• Turnover: High liquidity ensures easy entry/exit
• Payoff at 5% upside (28.03): $1.03 per contract, 2.5x leverage on capital
• This contract balances volatility and liquidity, ideal for a short-term breakout play given RGTI’s proximity to key resistance.

Top Option 2: RGTI20251226C26.5
• Strike: $26.5 | Expiration: 2025-12-26 | IV: 85.85% | Leverage: 22.99% | Delta: 0.5476 | Theta: -0.2180 | Gamma: 0.1478 | Turnover: 257,857
• IV: Elevated but not extreme, reflecting market anticipation
• Leverage: Strong amplification for directional bets
• Delta: Slightly higher sensitivity to upward moves
• Theta: Aggressive time decay, suitable for rapid execution
• Gamma: High responsiveness to price acceleration
• Turnover: Solid liquidity for position management
• Payoff at 5% upside (28.03): $1.53 per contract, 6.7x leverage on capital
• This option offers a safer entry point with higher delta, capitalizing on RGTI’s momentum while mitigating overbought risks.

If $27.67 breaks, RGTI20251226C27 offers short-side potential. Aggressive bulls may consider RGTI20251226C26.5 into a bounce above $26.73.

Backtest Rigetti Computing Stock Performance
The backtest of RGTI's performance after a 13% intraday surge from 2022 to the present reveals favorable short-to-medium-term gains, with win rates and returns consistently increasing across 3-day, 10-day, and 30-day intervals. However, the maximum return of 18.95% over 59 days suggests that while the stock has the potential for significant gains, it also carries moderate risk.

Quantum Computing’s Quantum Leap: What to Watch for RGTI’s Next Move
Rigetti Computing’s 13.36% surge reflects a confluence of sector-specific catalysts and speculative positioning in quantum computing. With technicals aligning for a potential breakout above $27.67 and options like RGTI20251226C27 offering high gamma exposure, the near-term outlook favors aggressive bulls. However, sector leaders like Intel (-0.67%) highlight broader caution, suggesting a volatile path ahead. Investors should monitor the 200-day average ($19.27) as a critical support level and watch for follow-through volume above $27.67 to confirm the rally’s sustainability. For those seeking leverage, the selected options provide a high-conviction play on RGTI’s quantum infrastructure narrative. Watch for $27.67 breakdown or regulatory reaction.