Rigetti Computing Surges 9.7% on Analyst Upgrade and Quantum Computing Momentum – Can This Rally Sustain?

Summary
• Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) surges 9.77% to $15.50, hitting a 2025 high of $15.88
• Needham analyst Quinn Bolton raises price target to $18, citing DARPA and DOE quantum initiatives
• Options volume surges 15x average as traders bet on short-term volatility
• Turnover hits 42.8 million shares, 15% of float traded in 4 hours

Rigetti Computing’s explosive 9.7% rally has ignited a firestorm in the quantum computing sector. With the stock trading at its highest level since April 2025, the move follows a pivotal analyst upgrade and growing momentum around federal quantum funding. As options activity surges and technical indicators suggest a breakout, investors are scrambling to decode whether this is a speculative frenzy or the start of a new upward trend in the high-risk, high-reward quantum computing space.

Analyst Upgrade Fuels Quantum Computing Sector Optimism
Rigetti Computing’s 9.77% intraday surge stems from a strategic upgrade by Needham analyst Quinn Bolton, who raised the price target to $18/share – a 15% upside from current levels. The analyst highlighted two key catalysts: the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s (DARPA) Quantum Benchmark Initiative (QBI), aiming to build a cost-effective quantum computer by 2033, and the bipartisan Department of Energy Quantum Leadership Act, which could allocate $2.5 billion over five years for quantum R&D. These developments have reignited investor confidence in the sector, with quantum computing stocks collectively surging 6% in early August as the pending Senate bill gains traction.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls and Strategic Puts for Quantum Rally
• 200-day MA: $9.42 (well below) • RSI: 56.8 (neutral) • MACD: 0.58 (bullish divergence) • Bollinger Upper Band: $17.76 (near-term resistance)

The technical setup suggests a continuation of the bullish momentum, with key levels at $15.50 (current price) and $17.76 (Bollinger Upper Band) acting as critical thresholds. Short-term traders should monitor the $16.50 strike as a potential reversal point, while long-term investors may find value in waiting for a pullback to the 52-week low of $0.66 before initiating positions. Given the sector’s speculative nature, position sizing should remain conservative.

Top Call Option: RGTI20250815C16 (Strike: $16, Expiry: 8/15)
• IV: 105.42% (elevated volatility)
• Leverage Ratio: 15.16% (high gearing)
• Delta: 0.49 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.073 (accelerated time decay)
• Gamma: 0.1336 (responsive to price swings)
• Turnover: $405,776 (high liquidity)
This contract offers a 90.74% price change potential if the stock breaks above $16.50. With a 5% upside projection (targeting $16.28), the payoff would be $0.28/share, yielding a 18% return on the option’s $1.55 premium.

Top Put Option: RGTI20250815P16 (Strike: $16, Expiry: 8/15)
• IV: 110.49% (attractively priced)
• Leverage Ratio: 10.77% (balanced risk)
• Delta: -0.506 (strong downside protection)
• Theta: -0.019 (slow decay)
• Gamma: 0.1275 (modest sensitivity)
• Turnover: $54,248 (reasonable liquidity)
This put provides a 39.83% downside hedge if the rally stalls. At a 5% downside (targeting $14.73), the payoff would be $1.27/share, offering a 250% return on the $0.51 premium.

Trading Outlook: Aggressive bulls should consider RGTI20250815C16 for a breakout above $16.50, while cautious investors may use RGTI20250815P16 as a hedge. The MACD crossover above the signal line and RSI neutrality indicate a strong short-term bias, but elevated IV suggests volatility is priced in.

Backtest Rigetti Computing Stock Performance
The backtest of RGTI's performance after a 10% intraday surge shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains, with 52.55% win rates for 3 days and 10 days, and 46.92% for 30 days. The maximum return during the backtest was 15.22%, which occurred on day 52, indicating that there is potential for continued upward momentum following a significant intraday increase.

Quantum Computing’s Moment: Now or Never for RGTI’s Rally?
Rigetti Computing’s 9.7% surge is a clear signal that the quantum computing sector is regaining institutional momentum. With DARPA’s QBI and the DOE’s $2.5 billion bill gaining traction, the stock’s technical setup – including a bullish MACD and RSI neutrality – suggests the rally could extend toward the $17.76 Bollinger Upper Band. However, the sector’s speculative nature demands caution, especially with RGTI’s P/E ratio at -22.21 and no meaningful revenue. Investors should monitor the $16.50 level as a critical inflection point, while IBM’s 0.29% intraday move underscores the sector’s independence from broader hardware trends. For now, the call on RGTI20250815C16 offers the best leverage for a continuation of the rally, but position sizing must remain conservative given the company’s unprofitable profile.