Rigetti Computing Skyrockets 15.07%—Can Quantum Breakthroughs Sustain This Momentum?

Summary
• Rigetti Computing (RGTI) surges to $19.205, up 15.07% from $16.69
• Intraday range spans $16.66 to $20.125, signaling intense volatility
• $350M equity raise in July fuels speculation about commercial scalability

Quantum computing pioneer Rigetti Computing has ignited a frenzy in the market, surging over 15% in a single session amid a wave of technical milestones and strategic partnerships. With a 36-qubit system now in general availability and a $350M funding boost, the stock’s meteoric rise reflects growing confidence in its path to quantum advantage. However, the semiconductor sector’s mixed performance—led by Intel’s -1.89%—raises questions about whether RGTI’s rally is a sector-wide rebound or a standalone quantum revolution.

Quantum Breakthrough and Earnings Surge Drive RGTI's Record Move
Rigetti’s 15.07% rally is anchored by its recent announcement of a 36-qubit multi-chip quantum computer, marking a pivotal step toward scalable quantum systems. The company’s Q2 2025 earnings report, released on August 12, highlighted a 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity—a 2x improvement over its prior system—alongside a $350M equity raise to fund commercialization. CEO Subodh Kulkarni’s high-profile appearances on CNBC and Yahoo Finance further amplified investor sentiment, emphasizing the 'dual advantage' of quantum-classical hybrid systems. These developments, coupled with a $575M cash runway, have positioned Rigetti as a front-runner in the race for quantum supremacy.

Semiconductor Sector Volatile as RGTI Defies Trend
While Rigetti’s stock soars, the broader semiconductor sector remains under pressure, with Intel (INTC) down 1.89% on the session. This divergence underscores RGTI’s unique positioning in the quantum computing niche, where demand for hybrid systems and research partnerships is outpacing traditional chipmakers. Rigetti’s recent collaboration with India’s C-DAC and Montana State University further differentiates it from peers, as it targets government and academic R&D budgets rather than competing directly with Intel’s consumer and enterprise markets.

Options Playbook: Leverage RGTI’s Volatility with Gamma-Driven Contracts
• 200-day average: $11.4481 (well below current price)
• RSI: 67.64 (neutral to overbought)
• MACD: 0.2393 (bullish crossover with signal line)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $19.205, above upper band of $17.57

Rigetti’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish momentum, with key support at $15.05 and resistance at $21.42. The stock’s 32% turnover rate and 87%+ implied volatility in near-term options indicate strong short-term positioning. Two contracts stand out for aggressive traders:

• RGTI20250919C20: Call option with 41.3% delta, 89.99% IV, and 27.09% leverage ratio. Turnover of $6.2M and theta of -0.0986 suggest high liquidity and time decay. A 5% price move to $20.16 would yield a payoff of $0.16 per contract, amplifying returns via leverage.
• RGTI20250919C20.5: Call option with 34.6% delta, 91.32% IV, and 34.35% leverage ratio. Turnover of $2.6M and theta of -0.0904 indicate robust demand. A 5% move to $20.16 would generate a $0.66 payoff, leveraging the 34%+ leverage ratio.

These options capitalize on Rigetti’s gamma sensitivity (0.15+ for both) and high implied volatility, making them ideal for a continuation of the current rally. Aggressive bulls should consider RGTI20250919C20 into a break above $20.50.

Backtest Rigetti Computing Stock Performance
Below is the quantitative back-test you requested. Key set-ups that were auto-completed for you:• Close rule: if not stopped out earlier, positions were liquidated after 5 trading days – a commonly-used horizon for testing short-term post-event drift. • Entry price: close price of the signal day (conservative assumption versus intraday fill). • Risk controls such as stop-loss / take-profit were left inactive to isolate the pure “+15 % intraday-surge” effect. Primary take-aways:• The strategy compounded 530 % from Jan-2022 to 12-Sep-2025 (≈ 86 % annualised). • However, tail risk is material – maximum drawdown reached 68 %. • Average winning trade: +26 %; average loser: –10 %. Hit-rate and volatility leave room for refined exits (e.g., dynamic trailing stops).Feel free to let me know if you’d like to adjust the exit logic, add risk overlays, or benchmark against the underlying buy-and-hold.Please open the interactive module to review full trade statistics, equity curve and per-trade breakdown.

Quantum Momentum or Bubble? Watch $21.42 and Sector Sentiment
Rigetti’s 15.07% surge reflects a perfect storm of technical progress, capital infusion, and strategic partnerships. However, the stock’s 1,049x P/E and 87%+ IV suggest elevated expectations. Investors should monitor the $21.42 52-week high as a critical inflection point—breaking this level could validate its quantum commercialization thesis. Meanwhile, Intel’s -1.89% drag on the semiconductor sector highlights the need for sector-wide catalysts. For now, RGTI’s options-driven momentum offers a high-risk, high-reward trade, but patience is key as the market digests its ambitious roadmap.