Rigetti Computing Rockets 16%: Quantum Breakthrough or Market Frenzy?

• Rigetti Computing (RGTI) surges 16.18% to $14.78, hitting a day high of $15.03 amid quantum computing milestones.
• The company achieved 99.5% two-qubit gate fidelity on its 36-qubit modular system, a 2x error reduction from prior tech.
• A 100+ qubit system is slated for late 2025, with the 36-qubit model launching August 15.
• The stock’s 52-week range is $0.66–$21.42, with today’s volume at $40.85M, 14.8% of float.

RGTI’s quantum leap in performance metrics has electrified traders, pushing the stock to its highest level since late 2024. The mid-year fidelity milestone has become the catalyst for a 893% year-to-date surge, but can this momentum sustain against sector volatility?

Quantum Breakthrough Ignites 16% Surge
RGTI’s meteoric rise stems directly from its announcement of achieving 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity on its modular 36-qubit system—a 2x reduction in error rates from its prior 84-qubit Ankaa-3 chip. This milestone positions Rigetti to scale toward a 100+ qubit system by year-end using proprietary chiplet technology, which CEO Subodh Kulkarni emphasized offers gate speeds 1,000x faster than competing ion trap architectures. The modular design’s scalability and semiconductor-inspired manufacturing processes have unlocked a path to commercializing advanced quantum systems, fueling investor optimism in a sector historically plagued by scalability challenges.

Semiconductors Mixed: IBM Lags as Quantum Outperforms
While Rigetti’s quantum computing breakthrough has propelled its stock 16%, the broader semiconductor sector is muted. Sector leader IBM (IBM) trades flat at -0.07%, reflecting broader tech sector volatility tied to AI chip supply chain dynamics and geopolitical tensions. Rigetti’s outperformance underscores the premium investors are placing on quantum computing’s disruptive potential versus traditional semiconductor firms grappling with AI demand cycles and regulatory headwinds.

RGTX ETF and Bullish Options Seize Quantum Momentum
Bullish Technicals:
• RSI: 59.13 (neutral, trending upward)
• 30D Moving Average: $11.98 (current price 23% above)
• Bollinger Bands: Current price above upper band ($14.11), signaling strong upside momentum.
• MACD: Positive divergence (0.38 vs. 0.35 signal line), suggesting sustained bullishness.

Trading Setup:
RGTI’s breakout above $15 faces resistance at its 52W high ($21.42), but near-term support holds at $14.11 (upper Bollinger). Aggressive bulls can leverage the Defiance Daily Target 2X Long RGTI ETF (RGTX) for amplified exposure. RGTX’s 31.3% intraday surge to $46.02 reflects its role as a beta amplifier in this quantum rally.

Top Option Picks:
1. RGTI20250725C14 (Call, Strike: $14)
• Implied Volatility: 97.97%
• Leverage Ratio: 14.54%
• Delta: 0.55 (moderate bullish exposure)
• Theta: -0.076 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.173 (sensitive to price swings)
• Turnover: $213,235 (high liquidity)
Why? This at-the-money call captures the $14–$15 price band momentum with a 287.5% premium surge, ideal for riding the 36-qubit launch optimism. A 5% upside to $15.52 yields a $1.52 intrinsic gain versus the $0.82 premium paid, netting a 86% return.

2. RGTI20250725C13.5 (Call, Strike: $13.5)
• Implied Volatility: 93.80%
• Leverage Ratio: 11.75%
• Delta: 0.64 (aggressive bullish)
• Theta: -0.076 (time decay)
• Gamma: 0.170 (price sensitivity)
• Turnover: $99,332 (liquid)
Why? This out-of-the-money option offers asymmetric risk/reward: a 5% rally to $15.52 delivers a $2.02 gain versus a $0.99 premium, yielding a 104% return. The high delta amplifies gains if momentum accelerates post-announcement.

Hook: “Bulls aiming for the 100+ qubit milestone should stack RGTI20250725C14 and RGTX into a close above $15.”

Backtest Rigetti Computing Stock Performance
The backtest of RGTI's performance after an intraday percentage change greater than 16% shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is 46.26%, the 10-day win rate is slightly higher at 46.79%, and the 30-day win rate is 45.99%, indicating a moderate likelihood of positive returns in the short term. However, the maximum return during the backtest period was only 1.38%, which suggests that while there is a chance of gains, the potential upside is limited.

Watch the Quantum Horizon: Rigetti’s Next Milestones
RGTI’s 16% surge spotlights investor euphoria around quantum scalability, but sustainability hinges on execution. The August 15 36-qubit launch and December’s 100+ qubit target are critical inflection points. IBM’s flat performance (-0.07%) underscores the sector’s bifurcation between legacy players and quantum disruptors. Traders should monitor RGTI’s resistance at $15.03 and $21.42 while tracking near-term catalysts. Action: Hold RGTX and the $14 call until fidelity targets are met—or brace for a pullback if semiconductor sector headwinds resurface.