Is Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Poised to Benefit from Fed Rate Cuts and Quantum Computing Breakthroughs?

The Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate-cutting cycle in 2025 has ignited renewed interest in speculative tech sectors, particularly quantum computing. With the Fed signaling a dovish pivot—projecting a 90% probability of a September 2025 rate cut and 50 basis points of easing by year-end—investors are recalibrating portfolios to capitalize on lower discount rates and reduced borrowing costs [1]. This shift is especially favorable for high-growth, capital-intensive industries like quantum computing, where long-duration cash flows become more attractive in a low-interest-rate environment [2].

Rigetti Computing (RGTI) stands at a pivotal juncture in this evolving landscape. Despite a projected 19.65% revenue decline for 2025, the company has fortified its financial position with a $350 million equity raise in Q2 2025, bringing its cash reserves to $571.6 million with no debt [3]. This liquidity provides Rigetti with the flexibility to advance its 3-4-year roadmap toward 1,000+ qubits, a critical milestone for commercial viability. Technologically, Rigetti has made strides with its Cepheus-1-36Q quantum computer, achieving a 2x reduction in error rates and 99.5% median two-qubit fidelity—a testament to its chiplet-based modular design [4]. These advancements position Rigetti to compete with peers like IonQ, which is projected to grow revenue by 119.02% in 2025 but faces challenges in scaling trapped-ion technology [5].

Strategic partnerships further bolster Rigetti’s case. Collaborations with the U.K.’s National Quantum Computing Centre and U.S. government programs like DARPA’s QBI initiative underscore its alignment with institutional R&D priorities [6]. Meanwhile, its partnership with Montana State University to install a Rigetti Novera QPU at the QCORE facility highlights its commitment to academic and commercial collaboration [7]. These moves are critical in a sector where infrastructure and ecosystem development are as vital as hardware innovation.

However, the interplay between Fed policy and quantum computing investment is nuanced. While rate cuts reduce the cost of capital, they also amplify valuation risks. Rigetti’s stock has surged 1,116.4% in 2025, outpacing even Quantum Computing Inc. (QBTS), which saw a 210.8% gain [8]. Yet, with first-quarter 2025 revenue at just $1.47 million, the company’s financials remain a concern. The Fed’s decision to delay or cancel rate cuts—potentially due to inflationary pressures from tariffs or resilient GDP growth—could trigger a market rotation into defensive assets, dampening speculative tech enthusiasm [9].

For investors, the key lies in balancing Rigetti’s technical progress and financial strength against macroeconomic uncertainties. The company’s modular design and Microsoft-aligned cloud-first vision offer a compelling narrative, but its path to profitability remains unproven. As the Fed’s policy trajectory crystallizes in late 2025, Rigetti’s ability to leverage lower rates for R&D and commercialization will determine whether it becomes a beneficiary of the quantum computing boom or a casualty of overvaluation.

Source:
[1] Powell suggests a change to Fed policy [https://www.invesco.com/us/en/insights/fed-powell-interest-rates-policy.html]
[2] The Fed's Dovish Shift and AI-Driven Tech Rally [https://www.ainvest.com/news/fed-dovish-shift-ai-driven-tech-rally-strategic-entry-point-investors-2508/]
[3] Rigetti Computing Reports Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results [https://rigetticomputing.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/rigetti-computing-reports-second-quarter-2025-financial-results]
[4] IonQ vs. Rigetti: Which Quantum Stock Has the Edge in 2025 [https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/ionq-vs-rigetti-which-quantum-stock-has-edge-2025]
[5] Quantum Computing Market Size, Share & Growth Report [https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/quantum-computing-market-144888301.html]
[6] IonQ or Rigetti: Who Wins From Microsoft's Cloud Quantum Push [https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/ionq-or-rigetti-who-wins-microsofts-cloud-quantum-push]
[7] News Releases | Rigetti & Co, LLC [https://investors.rigetti.com/news-events/news-releases]
[8] 8 Best Quantum Computing Stocks for 2025 [https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/best-quantum-computing-stocks-to-buy]
[9] Fall in focus: 5 things investors should watch [https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/nam/en/insights/markets-and-investing/tmt/fall-in-focus-5-things-investors-should-watch]