Rigetti Computing: Quantum Leaps or Quantum Leap into Losses?

The stock market is littered with tales of investors who turned modest sums into fortunes by betting on companies at the right time. For Rigetti Computing (RGTI), the question isn’t just whether its quantum computing ambitions can revolutionize industries—it’s whether its volatile stock could offer the kind of returns that transform small stakes into life-changing wealth. Let’s dive into the data to separate the quantum possibilities from the fiscal realities.

The Quantum Opportunity: A $20 Billion Market in the Making

Rigetti Computing is a pioneer in quantum computing, a field poised to redefine fields like drug discovery, logistics optimization, and cryptography. Analysts estimate the global quantum computing market could hit $2.5 billion by 2029, with some bullish projections exceeding $20 billion by the mid-2030s. For context, reveals a stark contrast: while the S&P has grown steadily, RGTI has swung wildly, from a high of $18.39 in January 2025 to a low of $3.03 in late 2024. Such volatility is both a risk and an opportunity for aggressive investors.

The Financial Reality: Losses, Revenue, and a Cash Burn

But behind the tech buzz lies a stark financial truth. Rigetti reported a net loss of $152.96 million in its most recent quarter, with revenue of just $2.27 million—a cash burn rate that demands investor patience. To put this in perspective, even at its April 18, 2025, closing price of $10.52, Rigetti’s market cap is a fraction of its peers like IBM ($100 billion+) or Honeywell ($40 billion+), which have far deeper pockets to fund R&D. For now, RGTI is a company betting its future on a technology that’s still years from mass commercialization.

The Stock’s Volatile Dance: From $18 to $3—and Back?

The stock’s performance since late 2024 tells a story of hype and reality colliding. In January 2025, shares surged to $18.39 on optimism about quantum breakthroughs, only to plummet to $3.03 by December—a 83% drop. By April 17, 2025, shares had rebounded to $8.32 but then spiked to $11.43 intra-day on April 18 before closing at $10.52. The trading volume on April 18—60.24 million shares—was nearly five times higher than the average daily volume, suggesting institutional investors were actively shifting positions. This isn’t just volatility; it’s a market wrestling with whether RGTI can deliver on its promise before running out of cash.

Competing in a Crowded Quantum Race

Rigetti faces fierce competition. IBM’s quantum cloud platform already has thousands of users, while Google’s Quantum AI unit claims breakthroughs in error correction. Even startups like IonQ and D-Wave are nipping at its heels. To stand out, RGTI needs not just technical wins but also partnerships with Fortune 500 firms willing to pay premium prices for early access. So far, its customer count remains undisclosed, leaving investors to speculate.

The Millionaire’s Gamble: Is RGTI a Buy?

Buying RGTI is akin to betting on a long shot. The upside? If quantum computing takes off as promised—and Rigetti secures a dominant position—its stock could skyrocket. Imagine if its revenue grows from $2.27 million to, say, $200 million in five years, with margins improving. Even a modest 10x revenue multiple could push the stock to over $100, a 900% gain from $10.52.

But the risks are monumental. The company’s burn rate means it needs to raise additional capital soon, which could dilute existing shareholders. Regulatory hurdles, technical setbacks, or a shift in investor sentiment could sink the stock again.

Conclusion: Quantum Potential, but a High-Stakes Roll of the Dice

Rigetti Computing isn’t a “set it and forget it” investment. Its stock’s 2025 volatility—from $3 to $18 and back—proves that quantum leaps (pun intended) can go both ways. For a millionaire’s bet, it requires two critical conditions: time to let quantum computing mature and capital to withstand the swings.

If you’re a risk-tolerant investor with a 10-year horizon, allocating a small portion of your portfolio to RGTI could pay off handsomely if it becomes a leader in this nascent field. But remember: even in 2025, the company is still losing $150 million annually while revenue is minuscule. This isn’t a stock for the faint of heart—or the short-term minded. The quantum revolution might make millionaires, but it’s a high-wire act without a net.