Rigetti Computing Plunges 5.9% Amid Quantum Computing Volatility – What’s Next?

Summary
• Rigetti Computing (RGTI) slumps 5.9% intraday to $52.7956, erasing gains from a record high of $57.955
• JPMorgan’s $1.5T investment plan and $5.7M in new quantum computing orders drive recent momentum
• Stock trades at 2,886x dynamic P/E, 25.7x price-to-book, and 34.4% turnover rate

Rigetti Computing’s volatile session reflects the quantum computing sector’s high-stakes narrative. After hitting a new 52-week high of $57.955, the stock faces profit-taking pressure amid JPMorgan’s $1.5T strategic investment plan and recent contract wins. With a 5,900% rally over the past year and a 130% surge in the last month, the stock’s sharp correction raises questions about sustainability and valuation risks.

Profit-Taking and Valuation Concerns Trigger Sell-Off
Rigetti’s intraday decline follows a record high driven by JPMorgan’s $1.5T investment plan targeting quantum computing and AI. The stock’s 5,900% rally since 2024 has pushed its price-to-book ratio to 25.7x, far exceeding the semiconductor industry average of 3.3x. Recent news of $5.7M in new orders for its Novera system and a $21M Air Force contract validated its commercial momentum, but the steep valuation and lack of profitability triggered profit-taking. Analysts warn that while quantum computing remains a long-term growth story, Rigetti’s current pricing assumes rapid technological breakthroughs and sustained demand, creating a high-risk profile for short-term traders.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility and Key Levels
• MACD: 8.16 (above signal line 6.35), RSI: 82.97 (overbought), Bollinger Bands: $55.44 (upper), $17.13 (lower)
• 200-day MA: $14.71 (far below current price), 30-day MA: $29.79 (bullish trend)

Rigetti’s technicals suggest a short-term overbought condition with a bullish long-term trend. Key support levels at $50.50 (intraday low) and $46.37 (recent low) could dictate near-term direction. Two options stand out for volatility-driven strategies:

• RGTI20251024P50 (Put):
- Strike: $50, Expiry: 2025-10-24, IV: 164.88% (high volatility), Leverage: 12.19%, Delta: -0.37, Theta: -0.175, Turnover: $2.36M
- Payoff: If RGTI drops 5% to $49.91, put payoff = max(0, $50 - $49.91) = $0.09/share. Ideal for short-term bearish bets with high liquidity.
- Why: High IV and leverage amplify gains in a 5% decline scenario, while moderate delta ensures sensitivity to price drops.

• RGTI20251024C55 (Call):
- Strike: $55, Expiry: 2025-10-24, IV: 160.22% (high volatility), Leverage: 11.44%, Delta: 0.48, Theta: -0.364, Turnover: $1.02M
- Payoff: If RGTI rallies 5% to $55.44, call payoff = max(0, $55.44 - $55) = $0.44/share. Suitable for bullish traders expecting a rebound.
- Why: High IV and moderate delta balance risk and reward, with strong liquidity for entry/exit. Aggressive bulls may consider RGTI20251024C55 into a bounce above $55.

Backtest Rigetti Computing Stock Performance
Below is a concise interpretation of the event-study back-test together with an interactive results panel.Key findings (high-level):• 165 separate –6 % (or worse) daily drops occurred in Rigetti Computing (RGTI.O) since 1 Jan 2022. • On average the share price recovered quickly: by trading-day 10 the mean event return was +7.3 % versus +5.7 % for a passive hold; by trading-day 20 it expanded to +22.1 % versus +15.4 %. • However, statistical significance is low across the whole 30-day window, and the win-rate never exceeds ~55 %. • Large positive outliers drive the average; median outcomes are noticeably lower (see full panel). • Conclusion: blindly “buying the –6 % dip” in RGTI has not delivered a robust edge—results are positive but volatile, suggesting that additional filters (e.g., volume spikes, macro context, or technical confirmation) are advisable.Parameter notes / assumptions:1. Intraday plunge approximated with “close-to-close ≤ –6 %” because high-frequency prints were not available in this dataset. 2. Default 30-day post-event window used by the engine. 3. Close prices chosen for both event detection and performance measurement. 4. No transaction costs or slippage applied.You can explore the full distribution, equity curves and day-by-day statistics in the embedded panel.Feel free to drill down into specific event dates, look at alternative windows, or add further screening criteria—just let me know how you’d like to refine the analysis!

Quantum Volatility: Watch $50.50 Support and Sector Catalysts
Rigetti’s 5.9% intraday drop underscores the sector’s speculative nature. While the stock’s long-term thesis hinges on quantum computing adoption, near-term sustainability depends on maintaining key support levels. A break below $50.50 could trigger further selling, while a rebound above $55.44 (Bollinger upper band) may reignite bullish momentum. Investors should monitor JPMorgan’s investment plan execution and Rigetti’s $571M cash reserves. For context, sector leader Intel (INTC) rose 4.2% today, signaling broader semiconductor resilience. Action: Short-term traders may target RGTI20251024P50 for bearish plays, while long-term holders should watch $46.37 support. If $50.50 holds, the stock could retest $55.44 as a key resistance.