Rigetti Computing Plunges 4.55%: What's Behind the Quantum Computing Giant's Sudden Slide?

Summary
• Rigetti Computing (RGTI) surges 25% in 2025 amid JPMorgan's $1.5T quantum computing investment plan
• $5.7M in new orders for 9-qubit Novera systems fuels recent momentum
• Intraday price drops to $52.41 (down 4.55%) after hitting 52W high of $55.35

Rigetti Computing, the quantum computing pioneer, faces a sharp intraday correction as investors reassess its valuation amid sector-wide enthusiasm. The stock opened at $54.85 and plunged to a session low of $50.00 before stabilizing. This volatility follows a 5,900% rally in 2025 driven by JPMorgan's strategic investment in quantum technologies and a $350M capital raise. The move raises questions about sustainability of its 2866x P/E ratio and whether the sector's euphoria is translating to fundamentals.

JPMorgan's Quantum Bet Ignites Volatility, But RGTI Falters
Rigetti's sharp decline reflects profit-taking after a 25% surge on Monday fueled by JPMorgan's $10B quantum computing investment plan. While the sector rallied on the news—evidenced by Harvard's 3,000-qubit breakthrough and MIT's reconfigurable quantum architecture research—RGTI's 2866x P/E ratio and $17.8B market cap (vs. $8M trailing revenue) triggered a correction. Options data reveals heavy put buying (e.g., RGTI20251017P54 with 15.45% leverage ratio) as traders hedge against overvaluation risks. The stock's 4.55% drop also follows a $21M contract win with the U.S. Air Force and UK National Quantum Centre, suggesting short-term profit realization after a 130% monthly gain.

Quantum Sector Gains Momentum as RGTI Dips
While Rigetti underperforms with -4.55% intraday, sector peer D-Wave (QBTS) declines -2.44%, reflecting broader profit-taking in quantum computing stocks. The sector's momentum remains intact, however, with Harvard's 3,000-qubit system and MIT's reconfigurable quantum architecture research validating long-term potential. RGTI's 5,900% 2025 rally outpaces QBTS's performance but faces scrutiny due to its 25.7x price-to-book ratio versus the semiconductor industry average of 3.3x. The sector's fundamental divergence—$8M in revenue for RGTI vs. $1.5T in JPMorgan's investment—highlights speculative trading dynamics.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on RGTI's Volatility
• MACD: 7.50 (above signal line 5.895) • RSI: 82.49 (overbought) • Bollinger Bands: 52.54 (upper), 34.48 (middle), 16.41 (lower) • 200D MA: 14.49 (far below price) • Key Support: 10.94–11.91 (200D range)

Rigetti's technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias despite long-term bullish trends. The stock trades above all moving averages but faces resistance at the 52.54 Bollinger upper band. Options data reveals aggressive bearish positioning: RGTI20251017P54 (strike $54, 15.45% leverage) and RGTI20251024P50 (strike $50, 11.87% leverage) stand out for their high liquidity and volatility sensitivity.

Top Option 1: RGTI20251017P54
• Code: RGTI20251017P54
• Type: Put
• Strike: $54
• Expiry: 2025-10-17
• IV: 175.35% (high volatility)
• LVR: 15.45% (aggressive leverage)
• Delta: -0.5096 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.1653 (time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0411 (price sensitivity)
• Turnover: $344,862

This put option benefits from RGTI's 5% downside scenario (targeting $49.79). Payoff calculation: max(0, $49.79 - $54) = $0 (breakeven at $54). The high IV and leverage ratio make it ideal for short-term bearish bets.

Top Option 2: RGTI20251024P50
• Code: RGTI20251024P50
• Type: Put
• Strike: $50
• Expiry: 2025-10-24
• IV: 163.13% (moderate volatility)
• LVR: 11.87% (balanced leverage)
• Delta: -0.3666 (lower sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.1683 (time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0252 (price sensitivity)
• Turnover: $656,050

This put offers a safer play with $50 strike price. Payoff calculation: max(0, $49.79 - $50) = $0.21 per share. The higher liquidity and moderate IV make it suitable for conservative bearish positions.

Trading Setup: Aggressive short-sellers should target RGTI20251017P54 for a 5% downside play, while conservative traders may use RGTI20251024P50 to hedge against a $50 support break. Watch for a close below $50.00 to confirm bearish momentum.

Backtest Rigetti Computing Stock Performance
Key take-aways• Sample size: 380 separate –5 % intraday-plunge events between 1 Jan 2022 and 14 Oct 2025. • Short-term impact: the average next-day move is essentially flat (+0.56 %) and the win-rate is <50 %, suggesting no reliable snap-back in the first 24 h. • Medium horizon: cumulative median return gradually improves; by day-10 it reaches +7.0 % (vs +5.7 % benchmark), and by day-30 it rises to +34.7 % (vs +26.8 %). • Statistical significance: none of the horizons up to 30d pass a conventional t-test at 95 % confidence, so the out-performance, while visually evident, is not statistically robust. • Hit ratio: win-rate hovers around 40-50 % throughout the window, meaning the positive average is driven by a handful of outsized rebounds rather than broad consistency. Assumptions & automated choices1. Price field: close prices were selected (default) for measuring post-event performance. 2. Event definition: a plunge day is one whose intraday low is at least 5 % below the previous day’s close. 3. Look-back window: 30 trading days was adopted as a conventional short-to-medium-term horizon. 4. Benchmark: buy-and-hold return of RGTI over identical calendar windows. You can explore the full time-series of event returns, cumulative curves and win-rate heat-map in the interactive panel below.Open the module to view detailed event-study charts and downloadable data.

RGTI at a Crossroads: Watch for Breakdown Below $50.0
Rigetti's 4.55% intraday drop signals a critical juncture for the quantum computing sector. While JPMorgan's $10B investment and Harvard's 3,000-qubit breakthrough validate long-term potential, the stock's 2866x P/E ratio and $17.8B market cap remain disconnected from fundamentals. Sector peer D-Wave (QBTS) declines -2.44%, highlighting shared valuation risks. Investors should monitor the $50.00 support level and options activity for directional clues. If RGTI breaks below $50.00, consider RGTI20251024P50 for a conservative bearish play. The key takeaway: Quantum computing's future is bright, but RGTI's near-term trajectory depends on earnings visibility and sector sentiment shifts.