Is Rigetti Computing Overvalued Amid the Quantum Computing Hype?

The quantum computing sector has long been a magnet for speculative capital, and 2025 has only intensified the frenzy. At the center of this storm is Rigetti Computing (RGTI), a company that has raised over $385 million in recent months while trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 925-a figure that defies conventional valuation logic. As the industry races to commercialize quantum hardware, investors must ask: Is Rigetti's valuation a justified bet on the future, or is it a precarious bubble fueled by hype?

Valuation Metrics: A Tale of Two Numbers

Rigetti's financials tell a story of stark contrasts. On one hand, the company's cash reserves have surged to $600 million as of November 2025, bolstered by a $350 million at-the-market (ATM) stock offering and a $35 million corporate funding round. On the other, its revenue remains minuscule: just $1.9 million in Q3 2025, resulting in a GAAP net loss of $201 million driven largely by non-cash adjustments like stock warrant revaluation according to financial reports. This disconnect between liquidity and revenue has led to a P/S ratio of 925, a level that dwarfs historical benchmarks and even outpaces peers like IonQ (IONQ), which reported $39.9 million in Q3 revenue-a 222% year-over-year increase.

Such a valuation assumes that Rigetti's roadmap-100+ qubit systems by 2025 and 1,000+ qubit systems by 2027-will translate into meaningful revenue streams. Yet, even with recent contracts like a $5.8 million Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) deal and $5.7 million in purchase orders for its Novera systems, the company's commercial traction remains limited. For context, D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS), a rival with a $10 billion market cap, has seen its stock surge 509% year-to-date by leveraging hybrid quantum-classical solutions for enterprise clients according to market analysis. Rigetti's focus on on-premises hardware, while technically ambitious, may struggle to scale without broader market adoption.

The Funding Paradox: Liquidity vs. Burn

Rigetti's recent capital raises highlight both its strengths and vulnerabilities. The $350 million ATM offering, which brought its cash reserves to $575 million with no debt, provides a buffer for R&D, capital expenditures, and potential acquisitions. However, this liquidity also underscores the company's reliance on investor optimism. Unlike more mature tech firms, Rigetti's cash position is not driven by recurring revenue but by continuous equity infusions-a pattern that raises questions about long-term sustainability.

Analysts note that Rigetti's cash burn rate, while not immediately alarming, is tied to high-risk R&D bets. For instance, its 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity on a 100+ qubit chiplet-based system is a technical milestone, but translating this into commercially viable products will require years of refinement. Meanwhile, competitors like IBM and Amazon are advancing fault-tolerant quantum systems and proprietary chips (e.g., Amazon's Ocelot), further intensifying the race.

Speculative Risks: A Market Built on Tomorrow's Promise

The quantum computing sector's valuation dynamics are inherently speculative. Rigetti's $8.44 billion market cap, compared to Quantum Computing Inc.'s (QUBT) $1.6 billion, reflects investor confidence in its hardware-centric approach. Yet, this confidence is not without skepticism. A 2025 report by warned that the sector's rapid growth could lead to a "bubble burst," particularly for firms lacking near-term revenue visibility.

Rigetti's P/S ratio of 925 is emblematic of this risk. For context, traditional tech companies rarely trade above a P/S of 10, and even high-growth SaaS firms rarely exceed 20. Rigetti's valuation assumes that quantum computing will achieve commercial breakthroughs within the next 12–24 months-a timeline that remains uncertain. While the company has secured niche contracts, its ability to scale these into recurring revenue streams is unproven.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Gamble

Rigetti Computing sits at a crossroads. Its technical progress and financial firepower position it as a key player in the quantum race, but its valuation reflects a future that may not materialize for years. For investors, the critical question is whether they are willing to bet on a 100+ qubit roadmap and speculative commercial contracts, or if they prefer to wait for tangible revenue growth.

In the short term, Rigetti's stock appears vulnerable to correction. predict a significant price drop in 2026 if the company fails to meet its 2027 qubit targets or if broader market sentiment shifts. However, for those with a long-term horizon, Rigetti's aggressive R&D and strategic partnerships could still pay off-if the quantum computing revolution arrives as quickly as its proponents hope.

In the end, Rigetti's valuation is less a reflection of today's performance and more a bet on tomorrow's potential. Whether that bet pays off depends on the speed of technological progress-and the patience of its investors.