Rigetti Computing: Assessing Its 2027 Scaling Trajectory on the Quantum S-Curve

The investment case for Rigetti hinges on the long-term adoption curve of quantum computing, not its immediate commercialization. The market is projected to expand from $1.44 billion in 2025 to approximately $19.44 billion by 2035, growing at a compound annual rate of nearly 30%. This isn't a sprint; it's a decades-long infrastructure build-out. The technology is in its early, steep phase of adoption, with practical applications for complex problems still likely a decade or more away. That timeline validates a focus on foundational scaling-the very problem Rigetti is attacking.

For all the industry hype, the reality is that the path to fault-tolerant quantum systems is a monumental engineering challenge. Building machines with enough qubits to solve real-world problems requires overcoming exponential scaling hurdles in fabrication, control, and error correction. This is where Rigetti's chiplet architecture becomes a critical first-principles bet. The company's recent $8.4 million purchase order for a 108-qubit system to India's premier R&D center is a tangible validation of this approach. The order specifically highlights the system's proprietary chiplet-based architecture as the foundation for scaling to the extremely high qubit counts needed for error correction.

This setup creates a clear investment thesis. Rigetti is positioning itself as an infrastructure layer builder during the long, early phase of the quantum S-curve. Its captive fabrication facility, Fab-1, and its focus on scalable packaging are designed to master the production challenges that will define the next decade. While the company's current revenue is modest-$12.7 million in trailing-12-month sales-its market cap reflects a bet on its ability to own the scaling rails. The risk is that commercialization takes longer than expected, but the opportunity is to capture the foundational technology required when that paradigm finally shifts.

Technical Execution: Progress, Delays, and the 2027 Scaling Roadmap

Rigetti's technical execution in early 2026 presents a classic tension between foundational achievement and commercial timing. The company hit a critical performance milestone, achieving a 99% median two-qubit gate fidelity on its 108-qubit prototype. This is a reliability benchmark that must be crossed to enable error correction and scaling. Yet, the path to market for its flagship system, the Cepheus-1-108Q, was delayed to the end of the first quarter of 2026. This delay is not a setback but a credibility test for its scaling commitment, as management cited the need for additional optimization on critical components like tunable couplers.

Separating technical progress from commercial delivery is key. The fidelity achievement validates the chiplet architecture's potential, while the delay underscores the engineering complexity of scaling. The company's stated goal of reaching 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity before release shows a focus on quality over speed-a necessary discipline for building the infrastructure layer. This pushback, however, trims near-term excitement and keeps the stock's valuation dependent on future milestones.

The real catalyst for the 2027 scaling trajectory is the $8.4 million on-premises order from India's C-DAC. This contract provides tangible deployment momentum for its modular architecture, with the system scheduled for deployment in the second half of 2026. It moves Rigetti beyond cloud-based demonstrations into real-world, national R&D use, proving its technology can win paid contracts. This is a crucial step in building the customer base and use-case validation needed to fund the next phase of scaling.

The bottom line is that Rigetti is navigating the steep part of the quantum S-curve. Its technical progress is solid, but the timeline risks are material. The delay to late Q1 2026 means the company must now execute flawlessly on the remaining optimization and launch phases. Success will demonstrate its ability to translate engineering prowess into commercial momentum, setting the stage for the exponential adoption that will define the next decade.

Financial Runway and the Exponential Adoption Bet

Rigetti's financial model is a pure-play bet on exponential adoption, not current profitability. The numbers are stark: revenue of just $1.9 million in Q3 2025 and a GAAP net loss of $201.0 million for the quarter. This is the cost of building the rails for a future paradigm. The company's runway, however, is substantial. It ended the quarter with $558.9 million in cash and, after warrant exercises, had approximately $600 million in total liquidity. This provides a multi-year buffer to fund its aggressive scaling roadmap, which aims for a 1,000+ qubit system by the end of 2027.

The key question is whether this runway aligns with the technological S-curve. The company's path requires continuous, massive investment in fabrication, packaging, and control systems to hit its fidelity and qubit targets. Its current revenue stream-mostly from small, upgradeable Novera systems-is insufficient to cover these costs. The financial model, therefore, depends entirely on the successful execution of its scaling milestones to eventually attract larger, more strategic contracts and partnerships. The $8.4 million order from India's C-DAC is a positive step, but it's a single data point in a long build-out.

A major potential catalyst to accelerate the adoption curve is the partnership with NVIDIA on the NVQLink platform. This integration of quantum with AI supercomputing could create a powerful hybrid computing model, opening new use cases and funding streams. If successful, it could compress the timeline for practical applications, turning a decade-long infrastructure bet into a faster adoption cycle. For now, though, Rigetti is financing its own exponential growth. The company is spending its cash to master the scaling problem, betting that the market's eventual shift will validate its foundational work. The risk is that the cash burns faster than the adoption curve steepens. The opportunity is that by 2027, it will have built the essential architecture for the quantum era.

Catalysts, Risks, and the 2026 Watchlist

The investment thesis for Rigetti now hinges on a handful of near-term events that will validate its scaling bet or expose its risks. The primary catalyst is the scheduled deployment of the 108-qubit system at India's C-DAC in the second half of 2026. This on-premises installation is a critical real-world test. Success will prove the durability and integration of its modular, chiplet-based architecture outside a controlled lab, demonstrating its readiness for national R&D centers and strategic partners. A smooth deployment would be a major credibility win, moving the company from technical promise to commercial execution.

Key risks, however, remain substantial. The company's financial model is built on exponential adoption, but its current burn rate is extreme. With a GAAP net loss of $201.0 million in Q3 2025 and revenue still under $2 million per quarter, the path to profitability is a decade-long runway. The primary risk is that this cash burn accelerates without a corresponding steepening of the adoption curve. A broader "quantum reckoning" looms, where valuations face reality if milestones slip or commercialization takes longer than the market now prices in.

Execution delays are another tangible threat. The recent revised timeline pushing the Cepheus-1-108Q launch to late Q1 2026 shows the engineering complexity of scaling. Any further delays on the C-DAC system or on hitting the company's own fidelity targets would erode confidence and pressure the cash runway. Investors must monitor for additional commercial orders beyond India, as these are needed to diversify the revenue base and fund the next phase of scaling toward the 1,000+ qubit goal by 2027.

Finally, watch for announcements of new partnerships that could accelerate the adoption curve. The integration with NVIDIA's NVQLink platform is a prime example of a potential catalyst that could create hybrid AI-quantum workloads, opening new funding streams and use cases. For now, the 2026 watchlist is clear: the C-DAC deployment, quarterly cash burn, and any new strategic alliances will be the metrics that determine whether Rigetti is building the rails for the quantum future or simply burning cash on a distant horizon.