Retirement Withdrawal Rate: Safe Starting Point in 2026

Morningstar's 2025 retirement income research estimates a 3.9% safe starting withdrawal rate for new retirees seeking consistent, inflation-adjusted spending over 30 years. This is up from last year's estimate of 3.7% but still relatively low. However, retirees willing to tolerate some spending fluctuations can start with a higher rate of nearly 6%. The right level of flexibility depends on individual tolerance for spending changes and the extent to which fixed expenses are covered by nonportfolio income sources.