Retail Stocks Poised for Holiday Season Gains in 2025

As the 2025 holiday season approaches, retail investors are increasingly turning their attention to companies demonstrating resilient earnings, strategic expansion, and strong consumer engagement. Three names stand out as high-conviction opportunities: TJX Companies, Ulta Beauty, and Amazon. These retailers have shown a unique ability to adapt to shifting consumer behavior while maintaining robust financial performance, making them compelling choices for capitalizing on the year-end shopping surge.

TJX Companies: A Model of Operational Excellence

TJX Companies (TJX) delivered a standout Q3 2025 performance, with revenue of $15.12 billion-surpassing estimates by 1.5% and reflecting a 7.5% year-over-year (YoY) growth according to earnings reports. Earnings per share (EPS) of $1.28 beat expectations by 5%, driven by higher average basket sizes and transaction counts in apparel and home categories. The company's pre-tax profit margin expanded to 12.7%, underscoring its disciplined cost management. Analysts have responded enthusiastically, with Bernstein, B of A Securities, and Goldman Sachs raising price targets to $155–$170.

TJX's strategic focus on international expansion further strengthens its long-term outlook. The company plans to enter Spain in 2026, aiming for a total of 7,000 stores across its markets. This move, combined with its strong inventory turnover and value-driven model, positions TJX to capitalize on global retail tailwinds.

Ulta Beauty: Navigating Earnings Volatility with Holiday Momentum

Ulta Beauty (ULTA) faces near-term challenges, with Q3 2025 EPS projected to decline 12.3% YoY to $4.51. However, revenue is expected to rise 7.3% to $2.71 billion, reflecting resilient demand for its beauty and wellness offerings. Analysts remain cautiously optimistic, citing a Zacks Earnings ESP of +1.02% and a "Buy" rating (Zacks Rank #2). This optimism is bolstered by Ulta's history of consistent earnings surprises, including a 14.91% positive surprise in its most recent quarter.

The company's holiday strategy-centered on aggressive promotions and curated product bundles-has historically driven strong consumer engagement. With its trailing four quarters showing positive earnings momentum, Ulta appears well-positioned to outperform expectations as shoppers prioritize beauty and self-care ahead of the holidays.

Amazon: Leveraging AWS and Prime to Fuel Growth

Amazon (AMZN) reported Q3 2025 revenue of $180.2 billion, a 13% YoY increase, with AWS contributing $33 billion in sales-a 20% YoY jump. The North America segment grew 11% to $106.3 billion, while the International segment expanded 14% to $40.9 billion. Despite $4.3 billion in special charges, operating income reached $17.4 billion, and net income surged 38% to $21.2 billion.

Amazon's consumer engagement metrics are equally impressive. Subscription services generated $12.6 billion in revenue-a 24% YoY increase-highlighting the stickiness of its Prime ecosystem. The Prime Big Deal Days event, while showing mixed sales performance, reinforced Amazon's dominance in retail media and targeted advertising. Analysts from Keybanc, Stifel, and Wedbush have upgraded Amazon to "Overweight" or "Buy" ratings, while Morningstar raised its fair value estimate to $260 per share.

Looking ahead, Amazon's Q4 2025 guidance of $206–$213 billion in revenue signals confidence in holiday demand. Continued investments in AWS and AI infrastructure-such as adding 3.8 gigawatts of power capacity-position the company to sustain long-term growth.

Conclusion: A Triad of Resilience and Innovation

TJX Companies, Ulta Beauty, and Amazon each offer distinct advantages for investors seeking to capitalize on the 2025 holiday season. TJX's operational efficiency and international expansion, Ulta's holiday-driven consumer engagement, and Amazon's AWS-led innovation and Prime loyalty create a diversified portfolio of high-conviction plays. As consumer behavior continues to evolve, these retailers' ability to adapt and deliver value makes them standout choices for the year-end shopping rush.