Retail Investors: Cautiously Optimistic in 2025 Amid AI Boom
As we step into 2025, retail investors are expressing a mix of optimism and caution, with a keen eye on the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on various sectors. While the S&P 500 and Bitcoin experienced significant gains in 2024, retail investors remain hesitant, displaying a "cautiously optimistic" sentiment.
According to a survey by the Conference Board, a record number of investors were bullish on the stock market in late 2024, with 57.2% expecting stocks to be higher 12 months later. However, their actions do not always align with their rhetoric. A separate survey by eToro found that while 61% of respondents expected the bull market to continue in 2025, 55% planned to increase their cash allocations, indicating a risk-off move.
Consumer sentiment, as measured by the Michigan consumer data, fell to 71.1 in mid-January 2025, down from a prior reading of 74. Consumer expectations also dipped to 69.3, the lowest reading since mid-August 2024. Inflation remains a top concern for retail investors, with 24% citing it as their primary worry for their portfolios in 2025.
Despite raising cash, retail investors remain bullish on certain sectors. More than 80% expect the Magnificent 7 (a group of tech stocks) to perform in line or better than the broader market in 2025. Additionally, 60% of retail investors expect AI stocks to move higher, although only 22% have exposure to this group. This suggests an opportunistic move to cash, with investors hoping to redeploy their funds during potential market dips.
Retail investors' cautious optimism in 2025 is driven by their resilience and appetite for opportunity. As AI continues to evolve and impact various sectors, investors are keeping a close eye on its potential implications for their portfolios. While their actions may contradict their bullish sentiment, retail investors remain optimistic about the market's prospects in the coming year.
