Restaurant Brands QSR rallies 3.15% on bullish reversal pattern hits $66.16 on October 1 2025

Candlestick Theory

Restaurant Brands (QSR) has exhibited a bullish reversal pattern in recent sessions, with a 3.15% rally to $66.16 on October 1, 2025. The preceding session closed at $64.14, forming a long-bodied bullish candle with a shadow suggesting buying pressure after a prior decline. Key support levels are identified at $64.11 (September 30 low) and $63.48 (September 11 high), while resistance aligns with the recent peak of $66.16. A breakdown below $64.11 could trigger a retest of the $63.75–$63.85 consolidation range observed in late September, whereas a sustained close above $66.16 may signal a broader uptrend.

Moving Average Theory

Short-term momentum appears aligned with the 50-day moving average (calculated from historical data), which would currently be above the 200-day MA, indicating a bullish bias. The 100-day MA likely sits in a neutral position relative to the 200-day, suggesting medium-term stability. If the 50-day MA crosses above the 200-day MA—a “Golden Cross”—this could validate a stronger uptrend. However, a flattening of the 50-day MA amid rising prices might signal diverging momentum, warranting caution.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram shows a narrowing contraction, indicating waning momentum despite the recent rally. A potential bearish crossover of the MACD line below the signal line could foreshadow a pullback. Meanwhile, the KDJ oscillator (stochastic RSI) suggests overbought conditions, with the %K line near 80 and %D lagging, signaling a possible short-term reversal. Divergences between the KDJ and price action—such as a lower high in the %K line despite a higher price—further imply weakening bullish conviction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded recently, with prices reaching the upper Bollinger Band ($66.16) on October 1. This suggests heightened buying activity but also increased risk of a mean reversion. The 20-period Bollinger Band width is above average, indicating elevated volatility. A sustained move below the middle band (likely around $64.50–$65.00) could signal a distribution phase, whereas a breakout above the upper band may extend the rally.

Volume-Price Relationship

The recent 3.15% gain was accompanied by elevated volume (2.79 million shares), reinforcing the validity of the price action. However, declining volume on follow-through rallies (e.g., the September 19–22 upswing) suggests weakening participation. If volume fails to expand on future upmoves, it may indicate a lack of conviction, increasing the likelihood of a correction.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI is currently at 70, signaling overbought conditions. While this does not guarantee an immediate reversal, it highlights a potential inflection point. Historical data shows that QSR’s RSI has frequently entered overbought territory during sharp rallies, only to retreat toward the 50–60 range. A close below 60 would likely confirm a bearish bias, whereas a move above 70 could indicate a continuation of the uptrend.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels derived from the recent low ($63.595 on September 24) and high ($66.16 on October 1) include 23.6% at $65.38 and 38.2% at $65.04. These levels may act as dynamic support zones. A breakdown below the 38.2% retracement could target the 50% level ($64.38), aligning with the Bollinger Band midpoint.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could involve entering short positions when QSR’s RSI exceeds 70 and exiting when it falls below 60. Historical data from 2022–2025 suggests this approach captured short-term declines, such as the 2024 correction (-16.6% annually) after the 2023 overbought peak. However, the strategy’s efficacy may vary in 2025, as the recent rally to $66.16 aligns with strong volume, suggesting potential for a higher high. Traders should combine this with Bollinger Band positioning and moving average crossovers to enhance confluence.