Restaurant Brands International (QSR): A Convincing Case for Near-Term Buy Based on Earnings Estimate Revisions and Analyst Upgrades

The investment landscape for Restaurant Brands International (QSR) has shifted dramatically in late 2025, with a confluence of analyst upgrades, improving earnings estimates, and institutional investor activity painting a compelling case for a near-term buy. As the company navigates a post-pandemic recovery in the quick-service restaurant (QSR) sector, its recent performance and strategic positioning have attracted renewed attention from both analysts and institutional stakeholders.

Analyst Upgrades Signal Strong Sentiment

Restaurant Brands International has recently been upgraded by two prominent rating agencies, reinforcing its appeal to investors. Argus Capital upgraded QSR from "hold" to "buy" on December 2, 2025, with a price target of $85, implying an 18.83% potential upside from its current price. Just one day later, Argus further elevated its recommendation to "strong-buy", underscoring a rapid shift in sentiment. This dual upgrade aligns with broader analyst consensus, as ten research analysts now rate QSR as a "Buy", while twelve assign a "Hold" and one a "Sell," resulting in an average price target of $75.23.

Simultaneously, Zacks Equity Research upgraded QSR to a Rank #2 (Buy), citing improved earnings estimates and a favorable outlook for the company. The Zacks rating system, known for its strong correlation with near-term stock performance, places QSR in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks in terms of earnings estimate revisions. This upgrade reflects a critical trend: while the company's expected earnings for the fiscal year ending December 2025 remain unchanged at $3.68 per share, analysts have raised their estimates by 0.6% over the past three months. Such revisions often signal improving business fundamentals, even in the absence of immediate revenue growth.

Earnings Estimate Revisions: A Catalyst for Outperformance

The upward trajectory of QSR's earnings estimates is a key driver of its investment thesis. Earnings estimate revisions are among the most powerful indicators of stock price momentum, as they reflect the collective expectations of analysts and market participants. For QSR, the 0.6% increase in estimates over three months suggests a gradual but meaningful improvement in operational efficiency and market confidence.

This trend is further amplified by QSR's strong performance in its International segment, which reported a 12.1% year-over-year increase in system-wide sales during the third quarter of 2025. Comparable sales growth of 4.0%-driven by robust performances at Burger King International (6.4%) and Tim Hortons Canada (4.2%)-highlights the company's ability to capitalize on global demand for its brands. These results not only validate the recent analyst upgrades but also provide a foundation for sustained earnings growth in the near term.

Institutional Investor Behavior Reinforces Confidence

Institutional investor activity further solidifies the case for QSR as a buy. Over the past 12 months, QSR has attracted $4.63 billion in institutional inflows, with 314 institutional buyers increasing their stakes. This surge in demand is reflected in recent ownership changes: EdgePoint Investment Group Inc. boosted its holdings by 15.4%, while Baupost Group LLC MA significantly increased its stake by 103.8%. Such aggressive accumulation by institutional investors often precedes strong stock performance, as these entities typically act on deep fundamental analysis and long-term value creation.

Notably, QSR's institutional ownership now stands at 82.29%, indicating a high degree of alignment between major investors and the company's strategic direction. While some institutions, such as Capital World Investors and Bank of America Corp DE, have reduced their positions, the overall trend remains bullish. For instance, Baupost Group's 4.2% increase in QSR shares during Q2 2025 underscores confidence in the company's value proposition, particularly when compared to peers like Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), which holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and a lower Value grade of C.

Secondary Offering: No Dilution, But a Strategic Redistribution

On December 3, 2025, a secondary offering involving QSR did not dilute institutional ownership but redistributed shares from a large institutional holder to public investors. An affiliate of 3G Capital sold 17.6 million shares via a forward sale agreement, with no new shares issued or proceeds generated for QSR. This transaction, managed by BofA Securities, maintained the total number of shares outstanding while broadening ownership. While insider selling by Chairman J. Patrick Doyle and Director Ali Hedayat raised some eyebrows, the overall institutional ownership structure remained stable, with Baupost Group's stake increasing during the same period.

Conclusion: A Convergence of Fundamentals and Sentiment

The interplay between Zacks and Argus rating upgrades, improving earnings estimates, and institutional investor behavior creates a robust case for QSR as a near-term buy. Analysts' rapid elevation of QSR to "strong-buy" status, coupled with a 0.6% increase in earnings estimates, signals a turnaround in market perception. Meanwhile, institutional inflows and strategic ownership changes-particularly by Baupost Group and EdgePoint-highlight confidence in the company's long-term value. As QSR continues to leverage its global brand portfolio and operational efficiencies, investors may find themselves well-positioned to capitalize on a stock that is increasingly viewed as a market-beater.