Restaurant Brands International Drops 4.22% as Bearish Technicals Signal Further Downside

Current Trading Session
Restaurant Brands International (QSR) declined 4.22% in the latest session, closing at $63.75 after trading between $63.69 and $66.70. This sharp drop occurred on elevated volume (3.33M shares), signaling intensified selling pressure.
Candlestick Theory
The current session formed a long bearish candle, decisively breaching the immediate support near $65–$65.50 established over August 15–19. This breakdown suggests capitulation, with the prior bullish recovery attempts near $70 acting as a confirmed resistance zone. A close below $63.69 would expose the $62.50 psychological support, aligning with volume-fueled bearish momentum.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages are in bearish alignment:
- 50-day MA (~$67.20): Price has traded below this level since early August, reinforcing resistance.
- 100-day MA (~$68.10): Consistent overhead pressure since July.
- 200-day MA (~$67.50): Death Cross configuration (50-day below 200-day since mid-August) confirms long-term bearish bias.
All key MAs slope downward, with price trapped below them—classic downtrend structure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
- MACD: The MACD line is below the signal line and declining further, with histogram bars extending negative territory. This signals accelerating bearish momentum.
- KDJ: The K-line (15.2) and D-line (19.8) are entrenched below the 20 oversold threshold. While oversold, no bullish crossover is evident, suggesting continued downward pressure. Bearish momentum remains dominant despite oversold readings.
Bollinger Bands
Price has breached the lower Bollinger Band ($64.80), indicating an oversold extreme. Bandwidth is expanding—a volatility expansion signal—typically preceding directional continuation. The failure to reclaim the 20-day moving average (mid-Band) reinforces bearish control. A sustained close below the lower Band may foreshadow additional downside.
Volume-Price Relationship
Distribution patterns dominate:
- High-volume declines (e.g., August 7: -5.15% on 6.04M shares; current session: -4.22% on 3.33M shares) confirm institutional selling.
- Rally attempts show muted volume (e.g., August 19: +1.09% on 1.27M shares), invalidating bullish reversals.
Volume divergence between sell-offs and recoveries underscores weak demand.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (28.3) is deeply oversold (<30), approaching the yearly low of 24.1 seen in April. Historically, such extremes triggered tactical bounces (e.g., April’s 19% rebound off RSI 24). However, the absence of bullish divergence tempers reversal expectations. RSI may remain suppressed in strong downtrends.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the April peak ($74.09) and May trough ($59.94):
- 61.8% level ($62.50): Critical support being tested. A breakdown opens risk to the 78.6% retracement ($60.70).
- 50% level ($66.50): Aligns with the 50-day MA and August consolidation, now acting as resistance.
- 38.2% level ($69.20): Converges with the 100-day MA and July breakdown point—major supply zone.
Confluence & Divergence
- Bearish Confluence: Breakdown below $64.00 links the 200-day MA, Fibonacci 50% level, and Bollinger lower Band. High-volume selling at this juncture validates structural weakness.
- Bullish Divergence Absent: No counter-signals emerge—RSI, MACD, and KDJ align with price deterioration. Oversold RSI alone lacks reversal credibility without volume confirmation.
- Critical Watch: A rebound above $65.50 (reclaiming the recent breakdown point) is needed to neutralize immediate bearish pressure.
Conclusion
Restaurant Brands exhibits entrenched bearish momentum, with technical structure favoring further downside toward $62.50–$60.70. Oversold readings warrant caution for contrarian entries, but reversal confirmation requires:
1. A bullish candle closing above $65.50 with volume expansion,
2. MACD/KDJ bullish crossovers,
3. RSI reclaiming 40. Until these materialize, rallies remain sell-on-strength opportunities within the broader downtrend.