Resolution Copper's Green Light: A Copper Giant's Gamble with Gold Potential

The U.S. Supreme Court's refusal to intervene in the Resolution Copper case is a seismic moment for the mining sector. This is a goldmine opportunity for investors in Rio Tinto (RIO) and BHP (BHP), but it's also a landmine of risks tied to tribal sovereignty, environmental liabilities, and the wrath of activists. Let's break it down—because the Oak Flat project isn't just about digging up copper; it's about betting on whether America's thirst for green energy can override its moral reckoning with history.

The Legal Green Light: A Win for Resolution Copper

The Supreme Court's decision to let the 2014 land swap stand is a game-changer. Apache Stronghold's RFRA argument—that destroying Oak Flat “substantially burdens” Apache religious practices—was rejected. The 9th Circuit's ruling that the mine doesn't “coerce” or “penalize” the tribe now stands, even as Justice Gorsuch called this a “grievous mistake.” For Rio Tinto and BHP, this means one of their biggest hurdles is cleared: the legal uncertainty that could have derailed the project.

But here's the catch: the fight isn't over. Apache Stronghold vows to push for congressional action to revoke the land swap, and protests will persist. Meanwhile, environmental groups are already sharpening lawsuits over the mine's irreversible impact on Oak Flat's sacred sites. Investors must ask: Can Resolution Copper survive the political and social backlash?

Why Copper is King—and This Mine is Its Crown Jewel

Copper is the backbone of the green energy revolution. Every electric vehicle, solar panel, and wind turbine needs it—and the U.S. is desperate to secure domestic supply. Resolution Copper, once operational, could produce 25% of America's annual copper needs. That's a strategic asset for Biden's infrastructure goals, and it's why both Republican and Democratic administrations have backed it.

For Rio and BHP, this project is a cash cow. At peak production, Resolution Copper could generate over $1 billion annually in revenue. With global copper demand set to surge 40% by 2030 (per the International Energy Agency), this mine isn't just a project—it's a moat against supply shortages.

The Risks: Activism, Activism, and More Activism

Apache Stronghold isn't going quietly. They've united liberals, conservatives, and tribal groups in a rare coalition. Imagine the Sierra Club and the Becket Fund for Religious Liberty teaming up to stop a mine. That's real political risk.

Then there's the environmental fallout. The mine's two-mile-wide crater will obliterate Oak Flat's archaeological and spiritual sites. Subsidence from mining could also destabilize nearby tribal lands. Lawsuits over these impacts could drag on for years, eating into profits.

Don't forget the dissent. Gorsuch's warning that this ruling could erode protections for Native sacred sites sets a dangerous precedent. Future projects on federal land may face similar battles, raising regulatory risks for miners nationwide.

The Bottom Line: Buy the Dip, but Keep an Eye on the Horizon

Resolution Copper's approval is a buy signal for Rio and BHP. Both stocks have lagged copper prices this year, offering a chance to catch a falling knife.

But investors must stay vigilant. If Apache Stronghold succeeds in overturning the land swap, or if environmental lawsuits delay the project past 2028 (its expected start date), these stocks could crater. Diversify your copper exposure—hold Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) as a hedge—but don't miss Resolution's upside.

This is a high-stakes bet, but copper is the oil of the 21st century. For the bold, Resolution's Oak Flat project is a once-in-a-generation opportunity. Act now—before the activists and the earth itself push back.

—Jim