Resolution Copper’s Fast-Track Milestone: A Coppermine Opportunity or Environmental Crossroads?

The U.S. federal government’s decision to fast-track the Resolution Copper Mine, a $6.7 billion project led by Rio Tinto (RIO) and BHP (BHP), has ignited debate over its potential to reshape America’s critical minerals landscape—or become a cautionary tale of clashing priorities. The “Fast-41” designation, granted under the 2015 FAST Act, positions this Arizona-based venture as a linchpin in the Biden administration’s push for domestic mineral independence, even as it faces legal, environmental, and cultural headwinds.

A Strategic Mineral Gamble
Resolution Copper holds one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper deposits, with 1.7 billion metric tons of ore. At full production, it could supply up to 25% of U.S. copper demand, reducing reliance on imports—currently 37% of consumption—from countries like Chile and Peru. Copper’s role in renewable energy infrastructure (e.g., EV batteries, solar panels) and defense technology has elevated it to a national security priority, as underscored by its inclusion on the U.S. Critical Minerals List in 2024.

The project’s block-cave mining method, which extracts ore 7,000 feet underground, promises minimal surface disruption compared to open-pit alternatives. Yet its $6.7 billion price tag and decade-long development timeline require sustained investor confidence amid volatile commodity markets.

Both companies’ shares have fluctuated with copper prices, which remain volatile. For Resolution to pencil out, copper must hold near its current $4.50/lb price—a level that reflects strong EV demand but could weaken if global economic growth slows.

Legal and Environmental Crossroads
The mine’s path to production hinges on resolving two major challenges: tribal sovereignty claims and environmental permitting. The San Carlos Apache Tribe has contested the 2014 land swap that transferred Oak Flat—a sacred site—to the project, arguing it violates religious rights under the 1993 Religious Freedom Restoration Act. The 9th Circuit Court is reviewing this case, with a ruling expected by mid-2024.

Environmentally, the project’s need for 20,000 acre-feet of water annually in Arizona’s arid climate has drawn scrutiny. While Resolution’s closed-loop water system aims to recycle 95% of its supply, critics like Dr. Elizabeth Holden of Arizona State University question the long-term feasibility of managing 1.5 billion tons of tailings.

The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process has also stalled, with the Biden administration’s 2021 reversal of the prior environmental impact statement (EIS) due to inadequate tribal consultation. The current EIS, now under review, faces further legal challenges from environmental groups.

Copper prices have risen 80% since 2016, driven by EV demand and supply chain bottlenecks. However, a slowdown in China’s construction sector or a global recession could erode profitability, making Resolution’s multi-decade investment timeline risky.

Economic and Geopolitical Stakes
Resolution’s proponents argue it will create 3,700 jobs and generate $61 billion in economic impact over its lifespan, including $280 million in annual tax revenue. For the U.S., the project could reduce reliance on imported copper by 25%, a critical step in diversifying supply chains amid geopolitical tensions.

Yet the project’s success could also set a precedent for other Fast-41 projects, such as Nevada’s Thacker Pass lithium mine and Minnesota’s Twin Metals copper-nickel project. Together, these initiatives represent over $15 billion in critical mineral investments, testing whether the U.S. can balance economic growth, environmental stewardship, and Indigenous rights.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Balancing Act
Resolution Copper embodies the U.S. government’s dual ambitions: securing mineral autonomy and proving the viability of large-scale infrastructure under Fast-41. With permits projected to conclude by 2026, the mine’s fate could hinge on three factors:
1. Legal Outcomes: A ruling favorable to the San Carlos Apache Tribe or environmental groups could delay or halt the project.
2. Market Conditions: Copper prices must remain robust to justify the $6.7 billion investment, especially as EV demand is projected to triple by 2030.
3. Regulatory Efficiency: The Fast-41 process aims to cut permitting delays by 30%, but its success here will determine its credibility for future projects.

If Resolution proceeds, it could supply 120,000 tons of copper annually—7% of current U.S. consumption—and reduce reliance on imports by 15 percentage points over a decade. However, its environmental and cultural trade-offs remain unresolved. For investors, the mine represents a bet on U.S. critical mineral strategy’s staying power—and the nation’s ability to navigate its resource crossroads without sacrificing its values.

The clock is ticking: With production expected to start by 2030, every delay raises the cost of capital and the risk of obsolescence. For Rio Tinto and BHP, Resolution Copper is more than a mine—it’s a test of whether America can mine its way to energy independence without losing its soul.