Resolution Copper Mine’s Expedited Approval: A Copper Linchpin for U.S. Energy Transition?
27min read The U.S. critical minerals strategy took a pivotal turn in April 2025 when the Resolution Copper Mine, a joint venture between Rio Tinto (RIO) and BHP (BHP), secured Fast-41 expedited permitting status. This designation, part of the Federal Permitting Improvement Steering Council (FPISC) program, aims to fast-track infrastructure projects deemed vital to national interests. For Resolution Copper—a $6.8 billion project poised to supply 7% of U.S. copper demand—the approval marks a potential breakthrough after years of legal and regulatory hurdles.
Strategic Imperative: Copper’s Role in the Energy Transition
Copper is a linchpin for the global energy transition, critical for electric vehicles, solar panels, wind turbines, and grid infrastructure. The U.S., currently 37% reliant on foreign imports for copper, has prioritized domestic production to reduce supply chain vulnerabilities. Resolution Copper’s potential output of 120,000 tons annually—enough to build 24,000 electric vehicles—aligns with federal goals under Biden’s 2021 Executive Order 14017 to strengthen critical mineral security.
The mine’s economic impact is equally compelling. Over its 40-year lifespan, it could generate $61 billion in economic activity, including 3,700 construction jobs and 1,500 permanent roles. For Arizona, the project represents a $1 billion annual boost to GDP.
Note: A surge in RIO and BHP shares would signal investor confidence in the mine’s approval timeline.
Legal and Environmental Crossroads
Despite its strategic importance, Resolution Copper faces formidable obstacles. The most pressing is the unresolved Supreme Court appeal by Apache Stronghold, a coalition of Indigenous groups opposing the land swap of Oak Flat (Chi’chil Biłdagoteel), a site sacred to the San Carlos Apache Tribe. The tribe argues the mine’s block-cave method would permanently destroy the area, violating religious freedoms protected under the Religious Freedom Restoration Act (RFRA).
The U.S. Forest Service, which must finalize the land swap by issuing a Record of Decision (ROD), has stated it will halt proceedings if the Supreme Court agrees to hear the case—a decision pending since early 2025. Legal experts warn this could delay the project by 7–9 months or longer.
Environmental concerns also linger. Critics highlight the mine’s projected annual water use (20,000 acre-feet) in an arid region already facing shortages, as well as its tailings management plan, which will generate 1.5 billion tons of waste. The Sierra Club and Apache Stronghold argue these risks outweigh the project’s benefits.
Political Dynamics and Regulatory Risks
The Biden administration’s stance adds another layer of uncertainty. While it supports domestic critical mineral projects, Biden’s team initially halted the mine in 2021 to conduct deeper tribal consultations. By April 2025, however, the administration conditionally approved the land swap, contingent on the Supreme Court’s ruling. This conditional support underscores the tension between advancing economic goals and honoring tribal sovereignty.
A sustained copper price above $4 per pound (current: ~$3.70) would strengthen Resolution Copper’s financial viability.
Investment Implications: Risk and Reward
For investors, Resolution Copper presents a high-reward, high-risk proposition. Success hinges on three factors:
1. Legal Resolution: A Supreme Court denial of Apache Stronghold’s appeal would clear a path for the land swap.
2. Environmental Compliance: Meeting NEPA requirements for water and waste management could add costs or delays.
3. Market Demand: Copper prices must remain robust to justify the mine’s capital expenditure.
The mine’s 2030 startup date assumes a best-case scenario, but setbacks could push it into the late 2030s. For Rio and BHP, the project’s success would diversify their copper portfolios and reduce reliance on Australia’s declining ore grades. However, if halted, it could become a financial burden, with billions lost in sunk costs.
Conclusion: A Copper Crossroads for the U.S.
Resolution Copper’s expedited status is a landmark moment for U.S. critical minerals strategy. If the legal and environmental challenges are overcome, the mine could supply 7% of domestic copper demand, bolster energy transition goals, and create thousands of jobs. However, the unresolved Supreme Court appeal and environmental opposition pose significant risks.
Investors should weigh the strategic benefits against execution risks. Rio and BHP’s shares may rally on positive regulatory news, but a Supreme Court ruling against the project could trigger a sell-off. The mine’s ultimate success will determine whether the U.S. can secure its energy future—or repeat past mistakes in balancing economic growth with Indigenous rights and environmental stewardship.
In the words of tribal leader Terry Rambler: “Oak Flat is not just land—it’s our soul.” For investors, the question remains: Can the nation’s energy future and cultural heritage coexist in the Arizona desert? The answer could redefine both U.S. mining and its moral compass.
