ResMed's Fiscal 2026 Earnings Outlook: A Strategic Play in Sleep Apnea and Home Healthcare's Expanding Universe

ResMed Inc. (RMD) has long been a bellwether in the sleep apnea and home healthcare sectors, and its fiscal 2026 earnings outlook underscores its entrenched leadership and strategic agility. With Q3 2025 results revealing 8% year-over-year revenue growth to $1.3 billion and a 140-basis-point gross margin improvement to 59.3%, according to ResMed's Q3 2025 press release, the company is poised to exceed expectations as it enters fiscal 2026. Analysts project a 13.2% year-over-year increase in Q1 2026 earnings per share (EPS) to $2.49 and a 13.1% rise in full-year 2026 EPS to $10.80, reflecting confidence in ResMed's ability to capitalize on industry tailwinds, as outlined in a Yahoo Finance preview.

Market Positioning: Leveraging Innovation and Industry Tailwinds

ResMed's dominance in sleep apnea solutions is underpinned by its product innovation and digital ecosystem. The recent launch of NightOwl™ home sleep apnea tests and AirSense 11 VPAP TX devices has strengthened its connected diagnostic and titration offerings, a point emphasized in the company Q3 filing referenced above. These products align with a broader industry shift toward home-based care, where nearly 40% of patients prefer portable devices for convenience and comfort, according to a Global Growth Insights report. The global sleep apnea devices market, valued at $7.2 billion in 2024, is projected to grow at a 7.8% CAGR through 2034, reaching $15 billion in a GMI Insights forecast. ResMed's myAir app, which integrates real-time feedback and adherence tracking, has further enhanced patient outcomes, contributing to its 23% non-GAAP EPS growth in Q4 2025, as reported by Yahoo Finance.

The home sleep apnea testing (HSAT) segment, a critical growth driver, is expected to expand at 3.1% CAGR from $712 million in 2025 to $966 million by 2035, per Global Growth Insights. ResMed's early mover advantage in HSAT, coupled with its 15 million cloud-connectable devices, positions it to capture a disproportionate share of this growth. As noted by Monexa, and detailed in a Sleep Review article, the company's ability to integrate telemedicine and AI-powered diagnostics-such as its generative AI concierge, Dawn-has streamlined operations and improved customer retention.

Long-Term Growth: Diversification and Digital Health

Beyond sleep apnea, ResMed's 2030 strategy emphasizes expansion into adjacent markets like insomnia and COPD, which collectively represent 1.3 billion patients, as ResMed announced when it launched the Sleep Institute. The Sleep Institute, a global clinical insights initiative launched in 2025, aims to bridge gaps in early diagnosis and care integration for these conditions, and this initiative was also referenced in the company's Q3 2025 materials. This diversification mitigates reliance on a single therapeutic area while tapping into underserved populations.

The company's digital health ecosystem, bolstered by 20 billion nights of sleep data and partnerships with wearable tech providers, is another cornerstone of its growth. ResMed's AirView platform, which supports remote patient monitoring, is increasingly adopted by value-based care providers seeking to reduce hospital readmissions. Analysts at Constellation Research highlight that ResMed's data assets and AI/ML capabilities-such as predictive analytics for therapy adjustments-create a moat against competitors like Philips Respironics, which faces operational headwinds.

Risks and Mitigants

Despite its strengths, ResMed faces challenges, including patient non-compliance (40% discontinue CPAP therapy within a year) and affordability barriers, as noted by Global Growth Insights. However, the company's expanded share buyback program and dividend of $0.53 per share signal confidence in cash flow resilience. Additionally, its 7% R&D investment to develop AI-driven solutions and expand into neuromuscular diseases by 2040, discussed in Sleep Review, addresses long-term risks by future-proofing its portfolio.

Conclusion: A Compelling Case for Long-Term Investors

ResMed's fiscal 2026 guidance, combined with its strategic alignment to industry trends and digital innovation, paints a robust earnings outlook. With the sleep apnea and home healthcare markets expanding at a rapid clip, and ResMed's ecosystem positioned to lead in diagnostics, therapy, and data analytics, the company is well-placed to deliver above-market earnings growth. For investors, the current valuation offers an opportunity to bet on a healthcare innovator navigating a structural shift toward decentralized, technology-enabled care.