The Resilience and Growth Potential of Nike in the Global Athletic Footwear Market

Nike's position in the global athletic footwear market has long been defined by its unparalleled brand equity, but 2025 has brought both validation and caution. According to the UBS Global Sportswear Consumer Survey 2025, Nike maintains a commanding lead in unaided awareness and brand loyalty, with 68% of consumers naming it as their first choice in athletic footwear-well ahead of Adidas' 55%. In athletic apparel, Nike's unaided awareness reaches 71%, further cementing its dominance. These figures, coupled with a 67% brand loyalty rate (the highest in the industry), underscore Nike's ability to retain customers despite macroeconomic headwinds. UBS analysts have even noted a year-over-year improvement in Nike's brand strength, signaling long-term optimism.

However, the AlixPartners 2025 U.S. Footwear Consumer Survey paints a more nuanced picture. While Nike's brand appeal remains unmatched, the broader market is grappling with a surge in price sensitivity. A staggering 78% of shoppers have walked away from footwear purchases due to cost-a 12 percentage point jump from 2024. This trend, exacerbated by rising trade tariffs and inflation, has led to a projected 17% decline in athletic footwear spending. Nike, like its peers, faces the challenge of balancing premium pricing with consumer expectations. Notably, only 5% of shoppers reported that loyalty programs influenced their spending, suggesting that traditional retention strategies are losing efficacy.

The tension between Nike's brand strength and shifting consumer priorities is further highlighted by generational divides. While Nike retains a strong emotional connection with many consumers-43% of whom now prioritize clear brand identity- Adidas and Reebok are gaining traction among Gen Z buyers. This demographic shift underscores the need for Nike to innovate not just in product design but in storytelling and digital engagement to maintain relevance.

Despite these challenges, Nike's unaided awareness metrics-particularly in key markets like the U.S. (72.4%) and China (65.6%)- remain a critical asset. These figures reflect a brand that, even in a price-conscious climate, continues to dominate consumer consciousness. For investors, the key question is whether Nike can leverage its loyalty base to drive premium pricing while adapting to the growing demand for value.

UBS's "increased conviction" in Nike's long-term prospects contrasts with AlixPartners' warnings about the sector's vulnerability to economic pressures. Yet, Nike's ability to blend innovation, sustainability, and digital-first strategies positions it to navigate these challenges. The brand's recent forays into metaverse engagement and eco-conscious product lines, though not quantified in the surveys, align with the broader trend of emotional brand loyalty cited in the AlixPartners report.

In conclusion, Nike's resilience lies in its dual strength of unaided awareness and loyalty, which provide a buffer against market volatility. While price sensitivity and competition from emerging brands pose risks, the company's brand equity remains a formidable moat. For investors, the path forward hinges on Nike's agility in addressing cost-conscious consumers without diluting the premium identity that has defined its success.