Reserve Rights/Tether (RSRUSDT) Market Overview – October 12, 2025

• Price declined to 0.004804 from 0.005036, forming bearish momentum.
• Volume surged during the dip, confirming bearish sentiment.
• MACD crossed below zero, RSI under 30, suggesting oversold conditions.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed mid-day before expanding during the selloff.
• Fibonacci 61.8% level at 0.004876 acted as key resistance.

Reserve Rights/Tether (RSRUSDT) opened at 0.004983 at 12:00 ET-1, hitting a high of 0.005036 and a low of 0.004748, closing at 0.004808 by 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 346,089,150.5 over the 24-hour window, with a notional turnover of $1,737,495. A bearish bias emerged as price broke below key support levels and tested oversold RSI conditions.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish "engulfing" pattern at 0.00497–0.004943 during the early afternoon, followed by a series of lower highs and lower lows. Key support was identified at 0.004803–0.004808, coinciding with a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level of a prior rally. The session closed near the lower end of the Bollinger Band, reflecting heightened volatility and bearish control.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below key price levels in the late afternoon, signaling bearish momentum. The 50-period MA on the daily chart crossed below the 200-period MA, a bearish "death cross" formation, reinforcing the bearish bias for RSRUSDT.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed below zero during the selloff, confirming bearish momentum. RSI dropped below 30 at 0.004803, indicating oversold conditions. However, divergence between RSI and price during the afternoon suggests caution against a potential rebound. If RSI fails to break above 40, bearish control may persist.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility tightened around 0.004975–0.004995 in the late evening, followed by a sharp expansion as price dropped below the 20-period moving average. Price closed near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating possible oversold conditions and a potential rebound from this level in the short term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased significantly during the price decline, especially after 19:30 ET, supporting the bearish breakdown. However, the volume-to-price divergence in the final hours (with price falling but volume tapering) may suggest weakening bearish pressure. Turnover confirmed the bearish move, with a notable spike during the 15-minute period from 19:30 to 19:45 ET.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.004876 served as a key resistance, with price failing to retest this level in the final 6 hours. A potential retest is expected if the price stabilizes. The 38.2% level at 0.004926 may act as a pivot for a short-term rebound, though bearish control remains strong.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for RSRUSDT could involve entering short positions when the 20-period MA crosses below the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and RSI below 30. This would align with today’s price action, where a short entry could have been triggered at 0.00497–0.004943. Stops could be placed above the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 0.004926, with a target near the 61.8% level at 0.004876. A trailing stop could be used to lock in gains if price shows signs of weakening bearish momentum.