Reserve Rights/Tether (RSRUSDT) Market Overview – November 12, 2025

Summary
• Price opened at $0.00454 and closed at $0.004498, trading between $0.004575 and $0.004191.
• A bearish bias emerged with closing below key support at $0.004500.
• RSI approached oversold territory while volume surged during the sell-off.

Reserve Rights/Tether (RSRUSDT) opened at $0.00454 (12:00 ET - 1) and closed at $0.004498 (12:00 ET) with a high of $0.004575 and a low of $0.004191. Total trading volume reached approximately 304.77 million RSR, with a notional turnover of $1,341,087 (based on volume-weighted close prices). The asset displayed bearish momentum over the last 24 hours amid heightened volatility.

Structure & Formations

Price tested the $0.004500 level repeatedly during the session, with bearish engulfing patterns emerging in the $0.004510–$0.004490 range. A key support zone appears to have formed near $0.004350, where price found brief consolidation. A large bearish candle at 04:30 ET (114500) confirmed weakness. A potential resistance level emerges around $0.004550, where price failed to close above during the early session.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price remains below both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA, indicating short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-day SMAs are converging with price hovering below both, suggesting bearish control is likely to persist in the near term. A crossover above the 50-EMA could trigger a short-term rebound.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained in negative territory throughout the session, with bearish divergence seen in the histogram. The RSI dipped below 30 in the final hour, signaling oversold conditions that may encourage short-term buyers. However, RSI’s quick rebound suggests limited conviction. Momentum appears to be slowing but remains bearish.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded near the lower Bollinger Band for most of the session, particularly in the 18:00–04:00 ET window (0000–0800 UTC), indicating low volatility and bearish pressure. A sharp contraction in the bands occurred between 05:00 and 06:00 ET (1000–1100 UTC), followed by a volatile break to the downside. Price now appears to be consolidating within the bands, with potential for a breakout on either side.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp selloff in the early hours of November 12, reaching over 30 million RSR in the 16:15 ET (0015 UTC) candle. Notional turnover also surged in line with price declines, confirming the bearish move. A divergence appears in the final hour as price fell to the session low, but volume declined, suggesting exhaustion among sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

A key 61.8% retracement level of the recent $0.004575–$0.004399 swing lies at $0.004485, where price found support late in the session. A potential 38.2% level near $0.004495 also provided a temporary floor. On the daily chart, a larger bearish swing from $0.004600 to $0.004300 suggests a possible 61.8% retracement at $0.004430 may form a near-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest of an RSI-based swing trading strategy for RSRUSDT shows that using RSI oversold (30) and overbought (70) levels as entry and exit signals can yield strong absolute returns, with a total return of approximately +283% and annualized returns of ~48%. However, this is accompanied by a significant -66% maximum drawdown, highlighting the need for strict risk controls. A Sharpe ratio of 0.69 indicates that the strategy’s returns are moderately attractive relative to its volatility. The default parameters use a 20% stop-loss and a 1200% take-profit to avoid premature exits, but these thresholds could be adjusted to tighten risk management, especially if RSI > 65 is used as an exit signal. The high trade frequency and long average holding periods observed in the test suggest that incorporating time-based stops or tighter trailing stops may help curb drawdowns. This aligns with the current RSI nearing oversold levels and offers a potential entry point for a short-term bullish trade if the price bounces.