Report Shows That E.V. Could Take Half Of The U.S. Auto Market By 2030

A report indicates that the market share of electric vehicles in the United States is expected to continue to increase to advance the realization of local climate goals.

States such as California in the United States are gradually phasing out gasoline-powered vehicles and transitioning to fully electric vehicles. A new report from Recurrent Auto, a battery data company, shows that by 2030, the penetration rate of electric vehicles in the United States will reach the critical milestone of 50%.

The report also predicts that by the end of 2025, the market share of electric vehicles in the United States will reach 15%. The threshold of 15% may represent the stage of mass popularization of electric vehicles.

Recurrent Auto cites data from the International Energy Agency and other institutions in its report. The International Energy Agency estimates that by 2030, the sales volume of electric vehicles in the United States will reach 9.5 to 9.6 million, higher than the previous estimate of 8.3 to 8.4 million.

Key factors driving this optimistic sentiment include the reduction of electric vehicle battery costs, as well as some states in the United States being committed to zero-emission goals and improving tax credits.

It is worth mentioning that in 2022, Recurrent Auto predicted that Tesla's Model Y would become the world's best-selling car in 2023, and later it was proven that Tesla indeed achieved this feat.

Data shows that the share of electric vehicles in the new car market in the United States reached 7.6% in 2023, compared to 5.9% in 2022. In the fourth quarter of 2023, local electric vehicle sales set a new record, and the market share of electric vehicles in the United States in the fourth quarter also reached a record high of 8.1%.

In the next few years, it is expected that Tesla may benefit the most from the optimistic sentiment towards electric vehicles in the United States.

Tesla dominated the U.S. electric vehicle market in 2023 with a market share of 55%, although this number is lower than the 65% in 2022. However, Tesla accounted for three of the top 10 best-selling electric vehicles in the United States in 2023.

After Tesla in terms of electric vehicle sales in the United States in 2023 were Ford Motor Company and General Motors' Chevrolet brand. Ford's sales were 72,608 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%. General Motors' Chevrolet electric vehicle sales were 62,988 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 65.2%.

Electric vehicle company Rivian Automotive can also benefit from the latest forecasts, with strong sales in 2023 and the launch of new models in the future. In 2023, the company sold 50,189 vehicles in the United States, a year-on-year increase of 143.3%. The R1S ranked seventh, and the R1T, with sales of 17,727, was outside the top ten.

The report also points out that the participation of other car companies, including Chinese brands, in the competition may affect the sales of Tesla, General Motors, Ford, and other car companies.

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