Renzo/USDC (REZUSDC) Market Overview

Summary
• Price surged from 0.00784 to 0.00855, showing strong bullish momentum mid-day.
• High volatility seen post-19:30 ET with a 6.3% increase in price from low to high.
• Volume spiked significantly in the 03:15–04:45 ET window, aligning with key higher highs.
• RSI and MACD suggest overbought conditions developed by 04:30 ET.
• Bollinger Bands expanded notably post-03:15 ET, indicating increased market activity.

Renzo/USDC (REZUSDC) opened at 0.00784 at 12:00 ET–1, reached a high of 0.00855, a low of 0.00782, and closed at 0.0082 at 12:00 ET. The total traded volume over the 24-hour period was approximately 10,383,106.9 USDC, with a notional turnover of $85,086.13. The pair displayed strong bullish momentum, particularly in the early morning hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a strong breakout above key resistance levels following a 2-hour consolidation phase between 0.00803 and 0.00813. A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 03:30 ET, confirming the breakout. A key support level appears to be forming around 0.00813–0.0082, which has held twice during the day. A doji at 04:45 ET suggests indecision, but the overall trend remains strongly bullish.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price remained above both the 20-period (0.00811) and 50-period (0.00807) moving averages for most of the session, reinforcing the upward bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages are separated by ~0.0002, with the 50-period sitting slightly above, indicating a longer-term bullish trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned positive in the early morning and showed a strong bullish divergence as price moved higher. The RSI surged past 70 by 04:30 ET, entering overbought territory, suggesting short-term exhaustion. The RSI’s pullback to ~65 by 05:15 ET may indicate a potential pause or consolidation before another leg higher.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked dramatically after 03:15 ET as price surged above the upper Bollinger Band (0.0084), expanding the band width. The bands have since contracted slightly, suggesting a temporary pause in volatility. Price remains above the 20-period moving average and within the upper third of the bands, indicating strong bullish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply between 03:15 and 05:15 ET, coinciding with the price break above 0.0084. Notional turnover also increased significantly, reflecting strong participation. Divergences are not observed, with both price and volume aligning in the bullish direction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 15-minute swing from 0.00782 to 0.00855, price has reached 78.6% of the retracement. A pullback to the 61.8% level (~0.0082) may offer a potential entry point. Daily Fibonacci levels suggest 0.00835 as a key retracement level, which has shown support and resistance multiple times over the week.

Backtest Hypothesis

While analyzing the RSI-based momentum strategy, we noted that overbought conditions occurred consistently in the 03:30–04:45 ET window. An RSI overbought-to-oversold strategy could be applied to this pair, entering long when RSI dips below 30 and exiting when it rises above 70. Given the pair's strong price-volume alignment and volatility, this strategy may have shown positive returns during the analyzed period, assuming consistent execution and stop-loss management.