Renzo/USDC Market Overview

• Price surged 4.4% over 24 hours with a key breakout above 0.01265.
• Strong bullish momentum confirmed by RSI and MACD divergence.
• Volume increased 180% in the final 6 hours of the session.
• Bollinger Band contraction in the morning led to a volatile expansion.
• Key support at 0.01249 holds, while resistance appears near 0.0128–0.0129.

Renzo/USDC (REZUSDC) opened at 0.01233 on 2025-09-20 12:00 ET, peaked at 0.01292, and closed at 0.01292 at 2025-09-21 12:00 ET, with a low of 0.01219. The 24-hour volume was 12.8 million USDC, and the notional turnover was approximately $1,633,000.

The 15-minute chart reveals a significant bullish reversal after a morning consolidation phase. A morning pullback below 0.01245 was followed by a sharp rebound, forming a bullish engulfing pattern. Key support levels at 0.01249 and 0.01233 appear to have held during the consolidation phase. Resistance levels at 0.01267 and 0.0129–0.0130 are in play following the recent breakout. The 50-period moving average now supports the price action, and the 20-period line has crossed above it, forming a bullish “golden cross” on the 15-minute chart.

The RSI moved from oversold territory (below 30) to overbought levels (above 60), signaling strong upward momentum. A bullish divergence between price and RSI was observed as price made new highs while RSI pulled back, reinforcing the strength of the move. MACD turned positive and showed increasing bullish divergence, suggesting the trend is likely to continue in the near term. Bollinger Bands displayed a period of contraction in the morning followed by a sharp expansion, aligning with the breakout. Price now resides above the 50-period moving average and within the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating heightened volatility and bullish positioning.

Fibonacci retracement levels derived from the swing low at 0.01219 and swing high at 0.01292 highlight potential continuation targets. The 38.2% level at 0.01265 and 61.8% level at 0.01287 are now embedded in the current price action, with the 100% extension projecting to 0.01315 as a possible next target. Volume surged in the final 6 hours of the session, confirming the breakout. The total notional turnover increased by over 180% during this time, suggesting strong accumulation. No material price-volume divergence was observed, which supports the continuation of the current trend.

The backtest hypothesis involves a momentum-driven approach based on the observed bullish divergence and key Fibonacci levels. A buy signal is generated when price closes above 0.01267, confirmed by a bullish MACD crossover and rising RSI. A stop-loss is placed below the 0.01249 support level, with a target at 0.01287 (61.8% Fib). The strategy would aim to capture the continuation of the current trend, using Bollinger Band expansion and volume surges as filters for entry and exit. This approach could be tested using historical data to evaluate its efficacy in similar conditions.