RENDERUSDT Market Overview for 24-Hour Period: 2025-09-19

• Price declined sharply from a 15-minute high of $4.163 to a low of $3.905, reflecting bearish momentum.
• Volume surged to 68,628.27 at the 15:00 ET candle, but price continued lower, signaling bearish divergence.
• RSI hit oversold levels below 30 twice, suggesting potential short-term buying interest.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the sell-off, indicating rising volatility.
• Price appears to be testing key Fibonacci levels from the recent swing high of $4.163 to $3.905.

Render/Tether (RENDERUSDT) opened at $4.089 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $4.163, a low of $3.905, and closed at $3.926 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-19. Total volume was 686,282.7 and notional turnover amounted to approximately $2,694,299 (based on price-weighted average).

Structure and formations in the 15-minute chart revealed a strong bearish trend over the 24-hour period, with a key support level forming around $3.905–$3.923. A bearish engulfing pattern was evident on the 15:15 ET candle (15:15–15:30), confirming the breakdown from the $3.95–$3.97 range. Additionally, a morning session low at $3.905 coincided with a large bearish candle with a long lower wick, suggesting rejection of support. A potential short-term support level may be forming at $3.916–$3.939, based on the 15:30–15:45 ET swing.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart indicated bearish dominance, with price closing well below the 20SMA and 50SMA throughout the session. On the daily chart, the 50DMA and 200DMA appear to be converging, but price is currently trading below both, suggesting a continuation of the bearish bias. A retest of the 50DMA may provide a potential short-term support zone, though a break below $3.905 could accelerate the decline further.

MACD remained in negative territory for the majority of the session, with a bearish crossover forming just before the 15:00 ET sell-off. RSI confirmed oversold conditions, dipping below 30 at $3.95 and again at $3.905, hinting at a potential bounce. However, price failed to confirm a reversal, remaining below key moving averages. Bollinger Bands expanded dramatically during the selloff, with price reaching the lower band multiple times. This suggests increased volatility and a high probability of further consolidation near the lower bounds.

Volume spiked to 68,628.27 on the 15:00 ET candle as price dropped to $3.956, but it failed to hold the level, showing bearish divergence. The largest notional turnover occurred on the 15:00 ET and 15:15 ET candles, suggesting significant institutional selling pressure. However, the absence of a strong rebound despite the oversold RSI and bearish divergence highlights a lack of conviction from buyers. A sustained rebound above $3.939 could signal a short-term reversal, but a close below $3.905 would likely target the next Fibonacci level at $3.893.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the swing high of $4.163 to the swing low of $3.905 were key during the session. The 38.2% retracement at $3.95–$3.97 acted as temporary support before the breakdown. The 61.8% retracement at $3.916–$3.939 may now become critical for short-term buyers. A failure to hold above this level could bring the 78.6% retracement at $3.893 into play, while a strong bounce from here could retest $3.97–$3.99 as a potential turning point.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the bearish divergence seen on the 15:00 ET candle and the strong rejection of key support levels, a short-term sell strategy could be backtested. This would involve selling on a break below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $3.916–$3.939, with a stop-loss placed just above the 78.6% level at $3.893. A profit target could be set at $3.878, aligning with the next Fibonacci extension. This approach would aim to capture the continuation of the bearish momentum observed in the 24-hour period, while managing risk through defined stop and target levels.