Render/Tether (RENDERUSDT) Market Overview

• Price opened at $2.343 and closed at $2.302 with a high of $2.46 and a low of $2.297
• Volatility increased midday with a sharp rally to $2.496 before a sell-off
• RSI hit overbought territory multiple times but failed to confirm bullish momentum
• Volume spiked during the 6:15–6:30 AM ET rally but waned during the decline
• Bollinger Bands showed a recent expansion, indicating heightened market uncertainty

Render/Tether (RENDERUSDT) opened at $2.343 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at $2.302 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-13. The pair reached a high of $2.46 and a low of $2.297 during the 24-hour window. Total traded volume amounted to 4,194,229.89, while notional turnover stood at $9,904,354.30. The chart displayed choppy intraday action with a sharp 5.5% rally in early hours followed by a consolidation and sell-off.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed key support levels around $2.32 and $2.35, reinforced by repeated bounces and failed breakouts. Resistance emerged at $2.40 and $2.46, with a bearish engulfing pattern visible after the $2.496 high. A morning doji near $2.41 suggested indecision, while the evening session displayed a bullish harami as buyers tested the $2.30 level. These patterns signal a possible continuation of range-bound action with a short-term bias toward the lower end of the range.

20/50 EMA on 15-Min Chart

The 15-minute chart shows a bearish crossover of the 20-period and 50-period EMAs around 3:00 AM, followed by a retest of the 20 EMA at $2.35–$2.36. The 50 EMA is currently at $2.363, acting as a dynamic resistance. The 20 EMA, at $2.33, now appears as potential support. The pair remains below both EMAs, suggesting bearish momentum in the near term.

50/100/200 EMA on Daily Chart

On the daily chart, the 50 EMA is at $2.38, above the 100 EMA at $2.36, and the 200 EMA at $2.34. The price has been hovering near the 50 EMA, with a slight bearish divergence between price and the 50–100 EMA spread. This suggests a potential shift in the intermediate trend if support at $2.32–$2.35 breaks.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD crossed into positive territory during the morning rally but failed to maintain momentum, returning to neutral as the pair pulled back. The histogram showed a narrowing divergence, signaling a loss of bullish energy. RSI reached overbought levels above 70 at $2.496, but without a follow-through in volume, it failed to confirm strength. RSI has since fallen to 52, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish outlook.

The daily RSI remains at 58, with a recent bearish crossover into oversold territory during the afternoon session. This suggests a potential oversold bounce may be in the cards, but a sustained move above $2.40 would be required to re-engage bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the 6:15–6:30 AM rally, reflecting heightened volatility. Price tested the upper band at $2.496 and bounced back sharply toward the lower band, which acted as resistance around $2.30–$2.32. The current price is inside the lower third of the bands, indicating a potential oversold condition and possible near-term support around the 20 EMA at $2.33.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 6:15–6:30 AM rally, with over 148,791.77 units traded. This was supported by high notional turnover of $364,781.60 during that 15-minute period. However, volume declined significantly during the afternoon sell-off, despite a sharp price drop. This divergence between price and volume suggests weaker conviction in the bearish move and could signal a potential short-term bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing high at $2.496 and low at $2.297, key levels include 38.2% at $2.37 and 61.8% at $2.39. The price has bounced off the 38.2% level and may find support again at $2.35 (61.8% of a smaller intra-day move). On a broader daily scale, the 50% Fib level at $2.37 may act as a psychological pivot for direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy, which involves entering long positions when the daily RSI(14) crosses above 70 and exiting five calendar days later, has shown poor performance over the tested period (Jan 1, 2022 – Nov 13, 2025). With a net return of -32.41% and a Sharpe ratio of -0.52, the strategy appears to have been prone to overbought entries that failed to sustain gains. Large drawdowns, particularly during bearish phases, led to an average losing trade of -9.68%, outpacing the +6.56% average winning trade.

This suggests that simply buying at overbought levels in this pair has not historically been a reliable strategy, likely due to frequent false breakouts and a lack of strong follow-through. In the context of the current market setup, where RSI remains neutral to bearish and overbought conditions have been frequently tested without confirmation, traders may want to consider more conservative entry methods or additional risk controls such as stop-loss orders or position sizing rules.

Outlook & Risk

Looking ahead, the market may see a short-term bounce off the $2.30–$2.32 support zone, particularly if RSI continues to show oversold conditions. However, the broader bearish divergence in EMAs and lack of strong volume during the recent rally suggest caution. Traders should watch for a breakdown below $2.30, which may trigger a test of prior support at $2.25–$2.27, while a retest of $2.40 could confirm a range expansion. Risk remains on the downside in the near term.