RELX Shares Fall 3.99% as Bearish Death Cross and MACD Divergence Signal Continued Weakness

RELX (RELX) fell 3.99% in the most recent session, closing at $32.46 after trading between $32.41 and $33.255. This sharp decline aligns with a broader bearish trend evident in the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, which collectively indicate a downward trajectory. The 50-day EMA has dipped below the 100-day and 200-day EMAs, forming a bearish crossover that reinforces the likelihood of continued selling pressure. The price remains below all three moving averages, suggesting short-term and long-term bearish momentum.

Candlestick Theory

The recent candlestick pattern features a large bearish body with limited bullish wicks, signaling strong bearish conviction. Key support levels are emerging around $32.41 (the recent low) and $31.22 (a prior trough in February). Resistance is clustered near $33.81 (a previous peak). A potential bullish reversal might require a rejection at the $32.41 level with a follow-through rally above $33.25, though the current momentum suggests further testing of support is probable.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day EMA is currently below the 100-day and 200-day EMAs, forming a bearish “death cross” configuration. The price remains below all three averages, indicating sustained bearish dominance. A crossover back above the 50-day EMA could signal a short-term trend reversal, but this would require a sustained rally exceeding $34.29 (the 200-day EMA level).

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram shows bearish divergence, with negative values expanding as the price declines. The KDJ oscillator, while entering oversold territory (K below 30), lacks a clear bullish divergence, weakening its reversal signal. Both indicators concur on the bearish bias, though the KDJ’s oversold reading suggests a potential short-term bounce if volume surges.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded recently, with the price hovering near the lower Bollinger Band. The 20-period moving average has shifted downward, confirming the bearish trend. A break below the $32.41 level could trigger further expansion of the bands, signaling increased volatility and potential for a continuation of the downtrend.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume surged to 4.81 million shares during the recent session, validating the price decline. However, the volume remains below the 30-day average of ~5.5 million shares, suggesting the bearish move may lack immediate follow-through. A significant increase in volume during a potential rebound would be critical to confirm sustainability.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-period RSI has dipped below 30, indicating oversold conditions. However, the RSI has not formed a bullish divergence (price lows without corresponding RSI lows), which weakens the reversal signal. This highlights the risk of a continuation of the downtrend despite the oversold reading, a common scenario in strong bear markets.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels derived from the recent high of $35.76 (March 17) to the low of $32.41 (March 24) include 61.8% at $33.54 and 78.6% at $32.88. The current price is approaching the 78.6% retracement level, which could act as a short-term support if the bearish momentum stalls. A break below $32.41 would extend the correction toward the 100% retracement at $32.16.

Confluence and Divergences

Strong confluence exists between the bearish moving averages, MACD, and Bollinger Bands, all pointing to continued downside. The RSI’s oversold condition contrasts with these indicators, but the lack of bullish divergence reduces its weight. A potential divergence between the KDJ oscillator and price action could signal a short-term bounce, but this requires confirmation through volume and follow-through buying.