RELX Plunges 3.5% Amid Dividend Cut and Analyst Volatility: Is This a Buying Opportunity?

Summary
• RELX opens at $48.81, matching its intraday low as of 16:47 ET
• Intraday range narrows to $48.35–$49.075, signaling consolidation
• Analysts upgrade RELX to 'Buy' while the stock cuts semi-annual dividend
• Options chain shows 2025-10-17 $50 call and 2025-11-21 $50 put as top picks

RELX’s 3.5% intraday drop has ignited a frenzy of options activity and analyst chatter, with the stock trading near its 52-week low of $44.185. The move follows a dividend cut and mixed institutional buying, while technical indicators suggest oversold conditions. Traders are now weighing whether this is a short-term correction or a deeper bearish shift.

Dividend Cut and Analyst Volatility Fuel Sharp Decline
The 3.5% intraday drop in RELX stems from a combination of a reduced semi-annual dividend of $0.2634 (yielding 170.0%) and conflicting analyst signals. While Wall Street Zen upgraded the stock to 'Buy' and Morgan Stanley reiterated 'Overweight,' the dividend cut—a 65.05% payout ratio—has spooked income-focused investors. Compounding this, the stock’s 50-day moving average of $53.24 now acts as a psychological resistance, with price failing to reclaim key support levels. The 26.06 RSI reading, well into oversold territory, suggests potential for a rebound, but institutional selling pressure remains evident.

Information Sector Volatility: RELX Underperforms SPGI’s -0.88% Move
The Information sector, led by S&P Global (SPGI) at -0.88%, has seen mixed momentum. RELX’s 3.5% decline outpaces SPGI’s modest drop, reflecting sector-specific concerns. While SPGI benefits from stable macroeconomic data, RELX’s exposure to dividend cuts and regulatory scrutiny in its Legal and Risk segments creates divergence. The sector’s 0.88 beta suggests market sensitivity, but RELX’s 33.44 P/E ratio highlights valuation concerns absent in SPGI’s 27.92 P/E.

Options and ETF Playbook: Capitalizing on Oversold Conditions
• 200-day MA: $50.09 (below current price)
• RSI: 26.06 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.536 (bearish), Signal: -0.339
• Bollinger Bands: $50.82 (lower band) vs. $48.81 (price)

RELX’s technicals point to a potential bounce from oversold levels, with the 200-day MA at $50.09 acting as a critical reentry threshold. The 2025-10-17 $50 call (RELX20251017C50) and 2025-11-21 $50 put (RELX20251121P50) stand out for their high leverage ratios (36.12% and 16.42%) and moderate deltas (0.434 and -0.520).

RELX20251017C50:
• Code: RELX20251017C50
• Type: Call
• Strike: $50
• Expiry: 2025-10-17
• IV: 20.27% (moderate)
• LVR: 36.12% (high)
• Delta: 0.434 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0201 (moderate time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0889 (high sensitivity to price swings)
• Turnover: 135 (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% downside ($46.37): $0 (out-of-money)
• Payoff at 5% upside ($51.25): $1.25 (in-the-money)
• Ideal for bullish traders expecting a rebound above $50.

RELX20251121P50:
• Code: RELX20251121P50
• Type: Put
• Strike: $50
• Expiry: 2025-11-21
• IV: 24.12% (moderate)
• LVR: 16.42% (high)
• Delta: -0.520 (high sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0033 (low time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0621 (moderate sensitivity)
• Turnover: 594 (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% downside ($46.37): $3.63 (in-the-money)
• Payoff at 5% upside ($51.25): $0 (out-of-money)
• Best for bearish traders anticipating a breakdown below $48.35.

Aggressive bulls should target a break above $50.09 to trigger a short-term rally, while bears may short the 2025-11-21 $50 put if the stock fails to hold above $48.35.

Backtest RELX Stock Performance
The backtest of RELX's performance after a -4% intraday plunge shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 61.65%, the 10-Day win rate is 65.59%, and the 30-Day win rate is 70.61%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of the plunge. The maximum return during the backtest period was 6.03%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that RELX can recover significantly from such events.

Act Now: RELX at Pivotal Intraday Inflection Point
RELX’s 3.5% intraday drop has created a critical juncture, with technical indicators and options activity pointing to a potential reversal. The 26.06 RSI and oversold conditions suggest a near-term bounce, but institutional selling and the dividend cut pose risks. Traders should monitor the 200-day MA at $50.09 and the 52-week low of $44.185. Meanwhile, SPGI’s -0.88% move underscores sector-wide caution. Act now: Buy the 2025-10-17 $50 call if $50.09 breaks, or short the 2025-11-21 $50 put if the stock closes below $48.35.