RELX Plunges 2.7% Amid Trump Tariff Frenzy: Is the 52-Week Low Next?

Summary
• RELX trades at $50.56, down 2.71% from $51.97
• Intraday range narrows to $50.51–$51.46
• RSI at 39.55 signals bearish momentum
• Sector leader Thomson Reuters (TRI) down 1.59%
RELX’s sharp intraday decline has captured market attention as the stock trades near its 52-week low of $44.185. With Trump’s new tariffs creating regulatory uncertainty and sector peers underperforming, investors are scrambling to decipher the catalyst. The stock’s technicals and options activity suggest a bearish short-term outlook, but the broader implications for RELX’s AI-driven growth narrative remain unclear.

Tariff Uncertainty and Sector Weakness Spark Selloff
RELX’s 2.71% drop is tied to President Trump’s recent announcement of new tariffs on 68 countries, including Canada, which has injected volatility into global markets. The move has spooked investors in information services, a sector reliant on cross-border data flows and regulatory stability. Compounding this, Thomson Reuters (TRI) and other peers like Wolters Kluwer (WKL.AS) are also down, reflecting broader sector weakness. RELX’s exposure to legal and scientific data services—segments sensitive to regulatory shifts—has amplified its vulnerability. The stock’s price action near its 200-day moving average ($50.08) and Bollinger Bands’ lower boundary ($51.23) further underscores the bearish sentiment.

Specialized Information Services Sector Under Pressure as TRI Leads Decline
The specialized information services sector is broadly underperforming, with Thomson Reuters (TRI) down 1.59% and Wolters Kluwer (WKL.AS) falling 1.76%. RELX’s decline aligns with this trend, as the sector faces headwinds from regulatory uncertainty and macroeconomic concerns. While RELX’s AI-driven growth narrative remains intact, the sector’s reliance on stable regulatory environments makes it particularly susceptible to Trump’s tariff policies. The FTSE 100’s 11.87% YTD return contrasts sharply with RELX’s 12.89%, highlighting the stock’s underperformance relative to its benchmark.

Bearish Setup: Key Levels and Options to Watch
• 200-day MA: $50.08 (below current price)
• RSI: 39.55 (bearish momentum)
• MACD: -0.429 (negative divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price near lower band ($51.23)
• 52-week range: $44.185–$56.33

RELX’s technicals point to a short-term bearish bias, with key support at $50.08 and resistance at $52.89 (middle Bollinger Band). The stock’s 39.55 RSI and negative MACD suggest continued downward pressure. While the 52-week low at $44.185 is a distant target, near-term volatility is likely as the market digests Trump’s tariff policies. The lack of a leveraged ETF complicates directional bets, but options offer alternatives.

RELX20251017C50
• Type: Call
• Strike: $50
• Expiry: 2025-10-17
• IV: 15.96% (moderate)
• Leverage Ratio: 25.35%
• Delta: 0.623 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0216 (moderate time decay)
• Gamma: 0.1039 (high sensitivity to price moves)
• Turnover: 0
• Payoff (5% downside): $0.695
This call option offers high gamma and moderate delta, making it responsive to price swings. While turnover is zero, its high leverage ratio and moderate IV make it a speculative play for a potential rebound.

RELX20251017C55
• Type: Call
• Strike: $55
• Expiry: 2025-10-17
• IV: 38.58% (elevated)
• Leverage Ratio: 25.35%
• Delta: 0.364 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0290 (moderate time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0426 (moderate sensitivity)
• Turnover: 0
• Payoff (5% downside): $0
This out-of-the-money call has elevated IV, reflecting market uncertainty. Its moderate delta and gamma make it a high-risk, high-reward bet for a sharp reversal.

If $50.08 breaks, aggressive bears may consider shorting RELX20251017P50, while bulls should wait for a bounce above $52.89 before initiating longs.

Backtest RELX Stock Performance
Relx Plc (NYSE:RELX) experienced a notable intraday plunge of -3% on August 4, 2025, which presents an opportunity to assess its performance following this significant volatility. Here's an analysis of Relx's performance after the intraday drop:1. Relx's Reaction after the Plunge: On August 4, 2025, Relx's stock price fell by -3% intraday, dropping to $51.94 from its previous closing price. The following trading session, Relx's stock opened at $51.91, reflecting a slight recovery but still trading below the previous closing price.2. Post-Plunge Analysis: Despite the intraday drop, Relx's stock exhibited resilience, as indicated by a subsequent slight uptick in the stock price. This suggests that investors may have perceived the dip as a buying opportunity, leading to a partial recovery in the stock price.3. Market Sentiment: The broader market sentiment surrounding Relx remains positive. Analysts have recently upgraded the stock from a "hold" to a "buy" rating, with a few rating the stock as "overweight". This indicates that the positive outlook for Relx may have contributed to the stock's ability to bounce back from the intraday plunge.4. Dividend and Financial Performance: Relx recently announced a semi-annual dividend of $0.2634 per share, which is a significant yield of 170.0%. The company's strong financial performance, with reported earnings of GBX 63.50 per share and a return on equity of 56.71%, further supports the notion that the stock may rebound after a temporary dip.5. Institutional Activity: Institutional investors have been actively adjusting their positions in Relx. For example, Scotia Capital Inc. reduced its stake by 7.2%, while Ameriprise Financial Inc. and Northern Trust Corp increased their holdings. This institutional activity can sometimes precede a stock's price movement and may influence how investors perceive the stock's future prospects.In conclusion, while Relx experienced a substantial intraday plunge of -3% on August 4, 2025, the stock has shown resilience and a partial recovery in the following trading sessions. Positive market sentiment, including analyst upgrades and a strong dividend yield, combined with the company's robust financial performance, may contribute to further gains in the stock price. However, investors should monitor the stock's performance closely, considering both the potential for growth and any lingering risks associated with the recent volatility.

Watch for Sector Catalysts and Key Support Levels
RELX’s selloff reflects broader sector weakness and regulatory uncertainty, but its AI-driven growth narrative remains intact. Investors should monitor the $50.08 support level and the sector leader Thomson Reuters (TRI, -1.59%) for directional clues. While the technicals favor a bearish near-term outlook, the stock’s 34.72 P/E ratio and 52-week range suggest potential for a rebound if macroeconomic fears abate. Aggressive traders may consider short-term options plays, but patience is key as the market digests Trump’s tariff policies. Watch for $50.08 breakdown or regulatory reaction.