Regulators Nod as Cardano's ETF Hopes Hit 87%

Cardano ETF approval odds have surged to 87%, reflecting renewed optimism in the crypto market. This sharp increase, an 11-point rise within a week, is largely attributed to Grayscale’s recent regulatory actions, including the submission of an amended S-1 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The filing, made on August 29, signals a strategic move by Grayscale to advance its proposal for a spot Cardano exchange-traded fund (ETF). If approved, the fund will trade under the ticker symbol GADA on the New York Stock Exchange Arca, tracking the CoinDesk Cardano Price Index [1].

The ETF will hold ADA directly without using leverage or derivatives, with custody services provided by Coinbase Custody, ensuring institutional-grade security. This approach mirrors Grayscale’s existing strategies for other cryptocurrency trusts and underscores its long-term commitment to the crypto market [2]. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart noted that Grayscale has also filed similar documents for a Polkadot ETF, reinforcing its broader efforts to expand its lineup of crypto-based investment vehicles [1].

Despite the positive momentum, the SEC has delayed its decision on the Cardano ETF, pushing the timeline to October 26, 2025. Originally expected by August 27, the delay is part of a broader trend as the SEC manages a record 96 crypto ETF applications, the highest number in its history [1]. However, recent regulatory developments, such as the SEC's clarification that certain staking activities do not constitute securities, have been seen as positive signals for crypto-related products. These changes are considered part of a growing effort to foster a more accommodating regulatory environment for digital assets [2].

The market has also shown a favorable response to Cardano’s performance. According to Grayscale’s rankings, Cardano ranks third in terms of weekly returns among top crypto assets, trailing only XRP and Stellar. This upward trajectory has further bolstered confidence in the ETF’s potential success [2]. Additionally, Cardano holds a market capitalization of $29.78 billion and is currently trading at $0.833, placing it among the top 10 largest cryptocurrencies [3]. Analysts suggest that the combination of Grayscale’s regulatory progress and Cardano’s market fundamentals makes the ETF approval increasingly likely.

With the regulatory landscape shifting and market confidence rising, the October 26, 2025, decision date has become a key milestone for investors and the broader crypto industry. The outcome will not only determine the fate of the Grayscale Cardano ETF but could also influence the regulatory trajectory of similar products. October has already been positioned as a pivotal month, with analysts and market participants closely monitoring the SEC’s final decision [1].

Source:

[1] Cardano ETF Approval Odds Jumps as Grayscale Files Amended S-1 with SEC (https://coingape.com/cardano-etf-approval-odds-jumps-as-grayscale-files-amended-s-1-with-sec/)

[2] Cardano ETF Approval Odds Soar to 87% After Grayscale ... (https://coincentral.com/cardano-etf-approval-odds-soar-to-87-after-grayscale-s-1-filing/)

[3] Grayscale Submits S-1 Filing for Cardano ETF, ADA Community Reacts (https://u.today/grayscale-submits-s-1-filing-for-cardano-etf-ada-community-reacts)