Regulators Hold Keys to HBAR and XRP’s Institutional Makeover

HBAR and XRP are both positioning themselves for potential regulatory milestones that could reshape their respective price trajectories. Recent developments indicate that HBAR, the native token of the Hedera Hashgraph network, is gaining traction among institutional investors, particularly with two spot HBAR ETF applications submitted by Grayscale and Canary. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has set a final deadline of November 11, 2025, for its decision, with approval odds currently standing at 90% [1]. This regulatory progress places HBAR in a similar position to XRP, as both cryptocurrencies are seen as candidates for potential approval of ETF products in the near term. Such a move could mark a significant shift in market perception, transitioning HBAR from a speculative asset to one with institutional-grade appeal.

The approval of a spot HBAR ETF is expected to open the door for pension funds, hedge funds, and retail investors to gain exposure to the token without directly engaging with crypto exchanges. With Grayscale’s involvement, liquidity is anticipated to increase substantially if the product is launched [1]. This dynamic contrasts with XRP, which, while also awaiting regulatory clarity, has a different set of market dynamics due to its broader adoption and ongoing legal battles. The November deadline creates a clear timeline for market participants to position themselves, and traders are closely watching for signs of accumulation ahead of the potential regulatory outcome.

HBAR’s price has shown a bearish trend since late July, trading near 0.217 USD and clinging to the lower Bollinger Band. While the short-term outlook remains bearish, the long-term potential for an upside breakout is growing as the ETF narrative gains traction. Key support levels are currently at 0.20 and 0.18, with a breakdown below 0.20 potentially sending the token into the mid-0.10s. Resistance is expected around 0.23 and 0.25, with a decisive close above 0.23 signaling renewed buyer control [1]. The Bollinger Bands have narrowed significantly, a classic sign of volatility compression that often precedes a breakout. Given the potential for ETF approval, the probability of an upside move is increasing, although the timing remains uncertain.

If the SEC approves the HBAR ETF in November, the token could see a re-rating as institutional demand meets retail-driven FOMO (fear of missing out). With supply locked in staking and governance mechanisms, any surge in demand could be amplified, potentially pushing the token toward previous highs near 0.28 and possibly beyond to 0.30+ [1]. This trajectory mirrors the potential outcomes for XRP if its regulatory hurdles are overcome. Conversely, a rejection or delay could send HBAR back into a range of 0.15–0.18, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

HBAR is currently in a quiet accumulation phase, with the ETF timeline serving as a medium-term bullish catalyst. Traders are advised to monitor the 0.20–0.21 range, where the risk-reward profile appears favorable ahead of the November deadline. A breakout above 0.23 would confirm bullish momentum, while a breakdown below 0.20 could delay the bull case. In this context, HBAR and XRP both represent tokens on the cusp of regulatory developments that could redefine their market positions. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether these tokens achieve broader institutional acceptance and market recognition.

Source: [1] HBAR ETF Approval Odds Hit 90%: Can the Price Rally from Here (https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/d4355-hbar-etf-approval-odds-hit-90percent-can-the-price-rally-from-here)