Regulators Greenlight Prediction Markets' Comeback in the U.S.

Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, has received regulatory clearance from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to re-enter the American market after more than three years of absence. The CFTC’s Division of Market Oversight and Division of Clearing and Risk issued a "no-action" position, effectively allowing the platform to operate under specific conditions without facing enforcement for noncompliance with certain swap data reporting and recordkeeping requirements related to event contracts. This decision comes after the CFTC and the U.S. Department of Justice concluded their investigations into Polymarket in July without filing any charges against the platform [1].

The approval follows Polymarket's acquisition of QCEX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, for $112 million. This acquisition has provided Polymarket with the legal infrastructure needed to function within U.S. financial regulations. CEO Shayne Coplan praised the CFTC for its "impressive work" and noted that the approval process was completed in "record timing." The company is now preparing to resume its operations in the U.S., offering users the ability to trade on a range of events including politics, sports, and the economy [3].

The decision is part of a broader shift in U.S. regulatory attitudes toward prediction markets and digital assets. This regulatory leniency aligns with efforts by the CFTC and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to streamline crypto-related rules. Both agencies issued a joint statement emphasizing that registered platforms can now facilitate the trading of certain spot crypto assets under existing frameworks. The statement noted the regulators’ shared goal of supporting the development of crypto markets, particularly as Congress continues to draft comprehensive crypto legislation [4].

Polymarket’s return to the U.S. has also drawn attention due to its strategic partnership with 1789 Capital, a venture capital firm backed by Donald Trump Jr. As part of the investment, Trump Jr. has joined Polymarket as a strategic adviser. This move highlights the increasing political and financial interest in prediction markets, particularly after they accurately predicted the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election [2].

The CFTC’s decision to grant a no-action letter to QCEX follows a similar path of regulatory flexibility previously seen with Kalshi, another U.S. prediction market that won a court challenge against the CFTC. This regulatory shift has led to increased investor interest in the sector, with Kalshi recently achieving a $2 billion valuation following a $185 million funding round [3].

The CFTC’s new approach appears to reflect broader changes in the agency’s leadership and regulatory philosophy. Acting Chairman Caroline Pham acknowledged the need to move away from "legal uncertainty," while the Trump administration has pushed for the U.S. to become a global leader in the crypto industry. Polymarket’s return signals a potential turning point in the regulatory landscape for prediction markets, which have long been debated for their potential as both speculative tools and accurate forecasting mechanisms [3].

Source:

[1] Polymarket set for U.S. launch after getting green light from CFTC CEO says (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/03/polymarket-set-for-us-launch-after-getting-green-light-from-cftc-ceo-says.html)

[2] Polymarket authorized for U.S. return days after Donald Trump Jr. joins as advisor (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/polymarket-authorized-for-u-s-return-days-after-donald-trump-jr-joins-as-advisor-c3c8b348)

[3] Polymarket returns to US after CFTC clears regulatory hurdles (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/polymarket-returns-us-cftc-clears-185012793.html)

[4] U.S. SEC, CFTC Combine Forces to Clear Registered Firms Trading of Spot Crypto (https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2025/09/02/u-s-sec-cftc-combine-forces-to-clear-registered-firms-trading-of-spot-crypto)

[5] Prediction market Polymarket receives CFTC approval to re-enter the US market (https://www.bitget.site/news/detail/12560604948957)

[6] U.S. CFTC Gives Go-Ahead For Polymarket's New Exchange QCX (https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2025/09/03/u-s-cftc-gives-go-ahead-for-polymarket-s-new-exchange-qcx)