Regulators Buy Time as XRP ETF Hopes Near 92% Probability Mark

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has extended its review period for Franklin Templeton’s proposed spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF), setting a new final decision date of November 14, 2025. This development marks another delay in the regulatory process for XRP-related investment products, continuing a trend seen across multiple ETF applications. The SEC initially published the application in the Federal Register on March 19, 2025, and has since exercised its statutory right to extend the decision deadline by 60 days. The extension allows the agency additional time to assess risks and evaluate investor protection concerns associated with the product.

The broader market anticipates a favorable outcome for XRP ETFs. As of September 2025, Polymarket data indicates a 92% probability that the SEC will approve XRP ETFs by the end of the year, up slightly from 91% the previous week. This growing confidence is attributed to the SEC’s evolving regulatory approach toward digital assets, particularly under the agency’s Project Crypto initiative. In addition, SEC Chair Gary Gensler has acknowledged the increasing relevance of cryptocurrencies in the financial landscape. Analysts suggest that approval would likely coincide with the commission’s recent approvals of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which were launched successfully in 2024.

If approved, XRP ETFs are expected to drive significant inflows. JPMorgan Chase estimates that the product could attract between $4 billion and $8 billion in its first year. Canary Capital CEO Steve McClurg, however, forecasts an even more rapid adoption, suggesting inflows could reach $5 billion within the first month. These projections are based on the precedent set by Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which saw substantial inflows in the months following their launches. Given XRP’s current market capitalization and the growing institutional interest in Ripple’s payment network, analysts view the ETF’s approval as a potential catalyst for renewed investor activity.

The approval of XRP ETFs would also signal a broader market shift, as lower interest rates could encourage investors to seek higher-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates at its upcoming meetings in September, October, and December 2025. Such a monetary policy environment typically benefits crypto markets by reducing the relative appeal of low-risk, high-yield assets like U.S. Treasuries. While there are no guarantees, many investors are betting that a rate-cutting cycle will coincide with an ETF approval, creating a favorable tailwind for XRP’s price performance.

Meanwhile, multiple other XRP ETF applications are also under review. These include proposals from Bitwise, Grayscale, 21Shares, and CoinShares. The SEC is expected to rule on several of these by mid-October 2025. If approved, these products would provide diversified, regulated access to XRP for both institutional and retail investors. This regulatory development would mark a significant milestone for the XRP ecosystem, potentially boosting liquidity and legitimizing the token as a mainstream financial asset.