Regencell Bioscience (RGC) Surges 10.9% on Volatility and Regulatory Scrutiny – Is This a Short-Lived Rally?

Summary
• Regencell Bioscience (RGC) surges 10.9% intraday to $24.50, driven by algorithmic trading and social media buzz.
• Market cap jumps 17,014% year-to-date to $12.11B, despite no revenue and a DOJ probe.
• 38-for-1 stock split in June 2025 reignited retail interest, but legal risks loom.

Regencell Bioscience’s (RGC) 10.9% intraday surge to $24.50 on December 23, 2025, underscores its volatile nature amid a DOJ investigation and a lack of revenue. The stock’s 17,014% annual market cap growth—from $120M to $12.11B—reflects speculative fervor, but its fundamentals remain fragile. With a 38-for-1 split in June 2025 and a public float of just 1.1%, RGC’s price action is a high-stakes game of momentum and regulatory uncertainty.

Algorithmic Frenzy and Regulatory Fog Drive RGC’s Volatility
RGC’s 10.9% intraday jump to $24.50 is fueled by a confluence of factors: a 1.1% public float that amplifies retail and algorithmic trading, social media-driven hype around its TCM-based ADHD/ASD research, and the lingering impact of its June 2025 38-for-1 stock split. The DOJ’s investigation into corporate operations adds a layer of uncertainty, yet the stock’s surge suggests short-term traders are betting on continued momentum. The lack of revenue and $3.58M net losses in FY2025 highlight the speculative nature of this rally, with price swings driven more by sentiment than fundamentals.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on RGC’s Volatility with High-Leverage Contracts
• MACD: 1.51 (above signal line 0.82), RSI: 88.66 (overbought), Bollinger Upper Band: $21.73 (below current price), 200D MA: $87.92 (far above).
• Key Levels: Support at $12.87–$13.09 (30D), resistance at $21.49 (200D).
• Options Chain Liquidity: Highest turnover at RGC20260116C20 ($13,860) and RGC20260116P20 ($17,978).

Top Options Contracts:
• RGC20260116C25 (Call, $25 strike, Jan 16 2026):
- IV: 100.97% (high volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 10.05%
- Delta: 0.53 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0695 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0611 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $17,394
- Payoff (5% upside): $1.23/share (max(0, 25.73 - 25)).
- Why: High gamma and IV make this call ideal for a short-term rally, though theta decay demands swift execution.

• RGC20260116P22.5 (Put, $22.5 strike, Jan 16 2026):
- IV: 172.57% (extreme volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 7.69%
- Delta: -0.33 (moderate bearish exposure)
- Theta: -0.0618 (rapid decay)
- Gamma: 0.0327 (modest sensitivity)
- Turnover: $16,420
- Payoff (5% upside): $0.00 (max(0, 22.5 - 25.73)).
- Why: High IV and leverage make this put a hedge against a sudden reversal, though its delta limits upside potential.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider RGC20260116C25 into a break above $25.50, while cautious traders should monitor the DOJ probe and $21.49 resistance. Avoid overexposure to puts given the stock’s bullish momentum.

Backtest Regencell Bioscience Stock Performance
The backtest of RGC's performance following a 11% intraday increase from 2022 to the present reveals positive short-to-medium-term gains, with the 3-Day win rate at 45.53%, the 10-Day win rate at 46.37%, and the 30-Day win rate at 51.96%. The maximum return during the backtest was 17.70% over 30 days, indicating that RGC tends to maintain upward momentum after such intraday surges.

RGC’s Rally: A High-Risk Gamble Amid Regulatory Crosshairs
RGC’s 10.9% intraday surge reflects a fragile balance between speculative fervor and regulatory risk. While the stock’s 17,014% annual market cap growth and 38-for-1 split have reignited retail interest, its lack of revenue, $3.58M net losses, and DOJ investigation cast a long shadow. Traders should watch the $21.49 resistance (200D MA) and $12.87 support (30D) for directional clues. The sector leader Amgen (AMGN) fell 0.08% today, underscoring biotech’s mixed performance. For RGC, the key is liquidity—high IV options like RGC20260116C25 offer leverage but demand swift execution. Act now: Secure RGC20260116C25 if $25.50 breaks, or exit longs if $21.49 fails to hold.