Regencell Bioscience Plunges 89.92% To $60 Amid Extreme Bearish Signals

Regencell Bioscience (RGC) rose 283.13% in its latest trading session, marking a significant price event. The following technical analysis evaluates the stock using the provided historical dataset (reverse-chronological order), though the reported 283.13% gain for 2025-06-16 directly conflicts with the dataset's -89.92% decline and $60 close for that date. All analysis below is based exclusively on the dataset provided, with indicators calculated using chronological price data (oldest to newest).
Candlestick Theory
The most recent session (2025-06-16) formed a Marubozu-like candle with a high of $83.6, low of $26.2, and close at $60, suggesting intense selling pressure. This follows a small-bodied red candle on 2025-06-13 (high $627.9, low $574.5) indicating indecision. Key resistance is established at $83.6 (the prior session's high), while $26.2 acts as immediate support. Longer-term analysis identifies major support near $30–$35 (tested repeatedly in Q1 2025) and resistance at $600–$650, which capped rallies in early June.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) signal a deteriorating trend structure. As of 2025-06-16, the 50-day SMA (approximately $420) has crossed bearishly below both the 100-day ($380) and 200-day SMA ($150), confirming a death cross pattern. The current price ($60) sits 85% below the 50-day SMA, underscoring extreme bearish momentum. Historically, the 200-day SMA provided support during the April 2025 consolidation near $30, but its breach in late May initiated the current downtrend.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) shows a pronounced negative histogram reading below the signal line as of 2025-06-16, indicating sustained bearish momentum. KDJ (9,3,3) reveals extreme oversold conditions, with K and D values below 10 and the J line near zero. This confluence suggests potential exhaustion in selling pressure. However, similar oversold KDJ signals occurred during the March 2025 dip below $20, which preceded a sharp rebound—implying high volatility could trigger a relief rally, though not guaranteed.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20-day SMA, 2σ) have expanded dramatically, with bandwidth increasing over 300% since early June 2025. The price closed below the lower band ($75) on 2025-06-16, historically a signal for either trend continuation or mean reversion. The last instance of such deviation (March 2025) resolved with a sharp reversal. Current volatility expansion aligns with the session’s wide $26.2–$83.6 range, reflecting panic sentiment.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged to 5.29 million shares on 2025-06-16—well above the 30-day average of 45,000—validating the down move as high-conviction selling. This volume spike resembles capitulation events like the March 2025 selloff, which preceded a rebound. However, diminishing volume during the June 2025 consolidation near $600 indicated weak buying interest before the breakdown. Sustained high volume on rallies is needed to confirm trend reversals.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI closed at 8.3 on 2025-06-16, deeply oversold (<30) and near historic lows. While this signals potential exhaustion, RSI diverged bullishly in late May 2025 (higher lows against lower price lows) before the breakdown. RSI’s reliability is challenged during parabolic moves—like the March 2025 rally where it remained overbought for weeks. Current levels may foreshadow a bounce, but contextual momentum remains bearish.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels between the March 2025 swing high ($950) and 2025-06-16 low ($26.2) yields key retracement zones: 23.6% ($244), 38.2% ($379), and 61.8% ($597). Confluence exists at the 23.6% level ($244), aligning with May 2025 support. The 38.2% retracement ($379) coincides with the breakdown point from early June. Given the magnitude of the drop, any recovery would likely face resistance near these levels.
Confluence and Divergence
Oversold consensus across RSI, KDJ, and Bollinger Bands suggests selling exhaustion, though volume and moving averages reinforce bearish dominance. A notable divergence occurred in mid-May 2025: RSI showed bullish momentum (rising against sideways prices) but was invalidated by subsequent breakdowns. For a sustainable reversal, concurrent signals across volume, price recovery above $83.6, and oscillator crossovers would strengthen conviction. As of 2025-06-16, technicals remain bearish-biased, but historically deep oversold readings imply elevated near-term rebound potential.