Regencell Bioscience Plummets 7.77% as Year-End Liquidity Wanes and DOJ Scrutiny Looms

Summary
• Regencell Bioscience (RGC) trades at $21.12, down 7.77% from its previous close of $22.90
• Intraday range spans $21.00 to $23.23 amid muted year-end volume of 87,483 shares
• Sector peers like NIO (-9.27%) and Xpeng (-6.18%) also underperform, signaling broader market jitters

Regencell Bioscience’s sharp selloff on 2025’s final trading day reflects a confluence of thin liquidity, regulatory uncertainty, and sector-wide volatility. With no new corporate disclosures and a DOJ subpoena hanging over the company, traders are navigating a high-risk environment. The stock’s 52-week high of $83.60 feels distant as it trades near its 200-day moving average of $88.31, a critical technical level to watch.

DOJ Subpoena and Year-End Liquidity Pressures Drive Sharp Selloff
Regencell’s decline stems from a perfect storm of factors. First, the absence of new corporate news—its last SEC filing was an October 31 annual report—leaves investors with unresolved questions about the DOJ’s investigation into trading in its shares. Second, year-end liquidity constraints have amplified volatility, with turnover at just 0.15% of its float. Third, the stock’s historical tendency for wide intraday swings, coupled with thin volumes, creates a self-fulfilling prophecy of exaggerated moves. Traders are also eyeing the $21.44 support level and $23.11 resistance as key inflection points.

Options and ETF Strategies Amid Volatility
• MACD: 2.38 (bullish divergence), Signal Line: 1.81, Histogram: 0.57 (momentum waning)
• RSI: 67.8 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: $11.20–$25.79 (wide range), 200D MA: $88.31 (far above current price)
• Support/Resistance: $16.48–$16.77 (30D), $10.36–$27.69 (200D)

RGC’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias but long-term range-bound profile. Key levels to monitor include the 200-day moving average ($88.31) and the 52-week low ($0.09). For options, two contracts stand out:

• RGC20260116P20 (Put, $20 strike, Jan 16 2026):
- IV: 147.39% (high volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 11.35% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.34 (sensitive to price drops)
- Theta: -0.05 (time decay manageable)
- Gamma: 0.05 (responsive to price swings)
- Turnover: 190 (reasonable liquidity)
This put option offers asymmetric upside in a bearish scenario, with a 5% downside projection yielding a payoff of $0.94 per share.

• RGC20260116C22.5 (Call, $22.50 strike, Jan 16 2026):
- IV: 155.19% (elevated)
- Leverage Ratio: 8.62% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.52 (balanced sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.11 (aggressive time decay)
- Gamma: 0.06 (high responsiveness)
- Turnover: 250 (strong liquidity)
This call is ideal for a rebound trade, with a 5% upside scenario generating a $0.61 payoff. Aggressive bulls may consider RGC20260116C22.5 into a bounce above $23.11.

Backtest Regencell Bioscience Stock Performance
The backtest of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (RGC) after an intraday plunge of at least -8% from 2022 to the present shows favorable performance metrics. The 3-Day win rate is 48.60%, the 10-Day win rate is 49.89%, and the 30-Day win rate is 52.04%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term following the intraday plunge. The maximum return during the backtest was 18.78% over 57 days, suggesting that RGC can deliver substantial gains in the months following a significant pullback.

Bullish Breakout or Bearish Breakdown? Key Levels to Watch in 2026
Regencell’s near-term trajectory hinges on three factors: a new SEC filing, renewed volume post-holiday, and a resolution to the DOJ probe. The stock’s 52-week low ($0.09) and 200-day moving average ($88.31) represent divergent extremes, but the path of least resistance appears bearish. Sector leader Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) rose 0.12% today, offering a contrast to RGC’s turmoil. Investors should prioritize liquidity and leverage options like RGC20260116P20 for downside protection. Watch for a breakdown below $21.44 or a regulatory update to trigger a reversal.