Refinery Rates Near Peak — Who’s Winning When Fuel Costs Surge?

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Weekly Refinery Utilization Rate has long served as a barometer for energy market dynamics, but its implications extend far beyond crude oil processing. As of December 17, 2025, the rate stands at , reflecting near-maximum capacity utilization. This figure, while high, masks subtle shifts in refining activity that could signal pivotal opportunities—and risks—for the air freight and logistics sector.

The Refinery Utilization-Fuel Price Nexus

Refinery utilization rates directly influence fuel prices, which in turn shape the cost structures of airlines and logistics firms. When utilization is high, as it has been since mid-2024, gasoline and jet fuel prices tend to rise due to constrained supply and elevated refining margins. For instance, the EIA's October 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts sustained refining activity through 2026, suggesting fuel price pressures will persist.

However, recent data reveals a nuanced trend: while December 2025 utilization averaged 94.7%, the first week of the month saw a dip to , hinting at potential volatility. Such fluctuations can create asymmetric impacts across the air freight sector. Airlines with robust hedging strategies—such as Delta (DAL) and American Airlines (AAL)—are better positioned to absorb fuel cost spikes, while low-cost carriers like Spirit Airlines (SAVE) face existential risks.

Sector Rotation: Winners and Losers in a High-Fuel-Cost Environment

The EIA's data underscores a clear dichotomy in the air freight and logistics industry. Full-service carriers with diversified fuel strategies and energy transition initiatives (e.g., sustainable aviation fuel investments) are outperforming peers. For example, , driven by aggressive hedging and SAF adoption. Conversely, Spirit Airlines filed for bankruptcy in early 2025, unable to offset rising fuel costs without hedging.

Logistics firms, meanwhile, face a dual challenge. Elevated fuel prices increase transportation costs, but companies leveraging energy arbitrage—such as those transporting refined products between regions with price disparities—can capitalize on refinery utilization imbalances. For instance, a logistics firm operating between the Gulf Coast and the Midwest might benefit from regional gasoline price gaps exacerbated by localized refining outages.

Strategic Implications for Investors

The EIA's historical data from 2020 to 2025 reveals a consistent upward trend in refinery utilization, with 2025 peaking at in June. This sustained high utilization suggests that fuel price pressures are unlikely to abate soon, reinforcing the need for strategic sector rotation.

1. Overweight Full-Service Carriers: Prioritize airlines with strong hedging and energy transition plans. Delta and American Airlines exemplify this profile, .
2. Underweight Low-Cost Carriers: Avoid airlines lacking hedging or diversification, as they face margin compression during fuel price spikes.
3. Logistics Arbitrage Opportunities: Target firms with cross-regional transportation networks that can exploit price differentials. For example, companies like FedEx (FDX) or DHL's parent Deutsche Post (DHLG.DE) may benefit from energy arbitrage.

The Asymmetric Economic Impact

The EIA's analysis highlights how declining refinery utilization—such as the 93.3% rate in early December 2025—can trigger short-term volatility. Reduced refining activity tightens fuel inventories, driving up crack spreads (the difference between crude and refined product prices). This dynamic disproportionately affects airlines without hedging, .

Conversely, logistics firms with flexible supply chains can thrive. For instance, during the 2024 , companies pivoting to air freight for high-value goods saw revenue surges despite elevated fuel costs.

Conclusion: Positioning for Resilience

The U.S. EIA refinery utilization rate is more than a technical indicator—it's a strategic signal for investors. As the energy transition accelerates, the air freight and logistics sector will face divergent outcomes based on fuel cost exposure and operational agility. By overweighting hedged airlines and energy arbitrage-capable logistics firms, investors can navigate the asymmetric risks and rewards of a high-fuel-cost environment.

In a world where every percentage point of utilization matters, the key to sector rotation lies in anticipating the ripple effects of refining activity—and acting decisively to align portfolios with the winners.