Since announcing his third run for President of the United States, former President Trump has insisted on the campaign trail that people lived better during his tenure and promised to overturn many policies implemented by the Biden administration since his departure. Now, after retaking Georgia and dominating votes in the "Blue Wall",his chance has come.
Trump has made a lot of "promises" in his campaign rallies, but now, with his successful return to the White House, how many of these promises will he fulfill?
01 Technology Policy
Trump has clearly proposed to overturn AI governance policies created by Biden's executive orders and adopt a more relaxed regulatory approach to the tech industry, giving the green light to tech mergers and acquisitions, and continuing tax cuts.
Artificial Intelligence
Trump seeks to repeal Biden's executive order. In his campaign platform, Trump claimed he would repeal Biden's dangerous executive order, which hinders AI innovation and imposes radical left-wing ideas on the development of the technology. Instead, AI development based on freedom of speech and human prosperity will be promoted.
Trump opposes excessive regulation of cutting-edge industries such as AI and encourages the adoption of policy guidance, pilot tests, voluntary frameworks, and other flexible non-regulatory approaches to minimize obstacles to AI technology development and application, ultimately serving the comprehensive competition with China.
According to previous reports, Trump's team is preparing a new executive order proposing the implementation of the AI Manhattan Project, aimed at promoting the rapid development of AI technology, especially its military applications, and efforts to clear legal obstacles for application deployment. Increasing military investment in AI will benefit technology companies like Anduril and Palantir, which have good cooperation with the Pentagon. The main executives of these giants all support Trump and have close ties with the Republican Party.
The AI Manhattan Project will also create an industry-led agency to assess AI models and ensure they are protected from foreign adversaries. The plan includes a section titled Making America No. 1 in AI, proposing a strategy for the AI industry that is completely different from Biden's AI executive order. This indicates that if Trump makes a comeback, he may implement policies favorable to Silicon Valley investors and tech giants (AI). Compared to the 2016 election, Trump has gained more support in the tech industry. Trump's inclination also indicates that he needs to cooperate with tech elites to form a cabinet to change the status quo.
Semiconductor and Other High-Tech Industry Export Controls
Trump may become more aggressive and extreme in the field of export controls. Looking at his previous term, China was the first to be hit in Trump's semiconductor export control field. Since March 2018, when Trump launched the Section 301 investigation, igniting trade disputes and a tech war, the Trump administration began to massively use the BIS Entity List, weaponizing export control regulations, with a large number of tech companies, universities, and research institutions becoming victims, and the global supply chain also suffering a severe impact. In addition, in the last year of his term, Trump targeted TikTok and WeChat overseas, seeking to take rough prohibition measures against Chinese-backed digital platforms in the United States.
If Trump returns to the White House with the ultra-conservative vice-presidential candidate Vance, he may continue to restrict Chinese companies' acquisitions in high-tech fields such as semiconductors through CFIUS (Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States), continue to restrict the export of high-computing power chip products to China and restrict the export of chip manufacturing equipment, components, chip design software from the upstream of the industry chain, and computing power leasing services from the downstream.
In addition to China as the main competitor, Trump's America First stance will also affect the interests of upstream and downstream parties in the semiconductor industry. On July 18, Trump commented on U.S. defense issues involving Taiwan, believing that Taiwan stole U.S. chip business, and therefore U.S. should not act as Taiwan's defensive insurance. TSMC, the world's largest chip foundry, saw its stock fall that day.
Overall, although Trump has shown a strong tendency for export controls, his policy style is changeable, and if he takes office, the scope and effectiveness of his policies also be uncertainty.
02 Economy
Trump has promised to extend the tax cuts in his 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), especially personal income tax cuts. The former president has also talked about reducing the corporate income tax rate to 15%, but only for companies that produce products in the United States.
Our plan will massively cut taxes, the former president said earlier this year. I will give you the best tax cut in history.
Trump also said he would push for legislation to repeal the tax on overtime pay to give people more motivation to work and make it easier for companies to recruit. In addition, Trump promised to eliminate the tip tax during a campaign event in Las Vegas, an action aimed at attracting hundreds of thousands of practitioners in the city.
The former president also promised to stop collecting social security benefit taxes. He has not yet proposed any alternative to the lost revenue, which could harm this popular welfare program, as well as Medicare and the federal budget.
He also proposed the establishment of a government efficiency committee as a way to cut government spending and announced that Tesla CEO Elon Musk has agreed to lead the committee. Trump said in a speech at the Economic Club of New York in September that the committee would develop an action plan to completely eliminate fraud and improper payments within six months.
Eliminating the $10,000 cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions, which he signed as part of the 2017 tax cuts, is also part of his "plans". Revoking this cap will largely affect high-income people in high-tax blue states who itemize their deductions.
In a speech in early October, Trump promised to fully deduct car loan interest as a pre-tax deduction. He also promised in a video in October to end the double taxation of American citizens abroad. This move can prevent some Americans living abroad from having to pay taxes to both the United States and their country of residence. He has not yet provided specific details on such deductions.
Trump also promised to repeal Biden's tax increases, immediately solve inflation problems, and end what he called Biden's war on American energy production. He promised to repeal all unused funds from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which established a series of climate measures and allocated about $80 billion to the Internal Revenue Service over 10 years.
To address housing affordability, Trump proposed banning mortgages for illegal immigrants, claiming they would drive up housing costs. According to U.S. media reports, illegal immigrants account for a very small proportion of the mortgage market.
To help American working-class people repay credit card debt, Trump promised in September to temporarily cap credit card interest rates at 10%. The current average credit card interest rate is slightly below 21%, while the average interest rate for retail store credit cards has reached a historically high 30.45%.
At a rally at New York's Madison Square Garden at the end of October, he also said he would support tax credits for family caregivers. He has not yet detailed who is eligible for this benefit, how much the amount is, and who will bear the cost.
03 Trade
In February, Trump promised to impose severe punishment on China and other countries that violate trade rules. The former president said that if other countries impose tariffs on the United States, the United States will respond with the same, completely identical tariffs.
This is the same promise Trump made in a 2023 campaign video: to impose the same tariffs on countries that impose tariffs on the United States as they do on other countries. Trump said at the time that the goal was to get other countries to lift tariffs.
As part of a larger strategy to bring jobs back to the United States, Trump also said that if elected, he would implement a so-called America First trade agenda. He said that with a universal minimum tariff on most foreign goods, Americans would see an increase in tariffs while taxes decrease. His proposal also includes a four-year plan to gradually eliminate all necessities imported from China and prevent Chinese companies from acquiring U.S. companies and U.S. companies from investing in China.
Trump said in February that if he is elected again, he would consider imposing tariffs of more than 60% on all imports from China. He also called for a tariff of at least 10% on all imports from all countries. At a campaign event in North Carolina in August, he said that the comprehensively imposed tariffs could reach as high as 20%.
In September, Trump proposed to impose tariffs of 100% or 200% on cars manufactured in Mexico. He stated that this move would deter Chinese companies from establishing car factories in Mexico to avoid U.S. tariffs and that he could implement these tariffs through executive orders.
Trump has also expressed interest multiple times in abolishing federal income tax, citing the example from the late 19th century when the United States relied on tariffs to fund federal expenditures.
04 Health Care
In November of the previous year, Trump posted on social media promising to repeal the Affordable Care Act, commonly known as ObamaCare. In 2017, Trump's effort to repeal and replace ObamaCare failed after three Republican senators joined Democrats in voting against the bill.
In a June 2023 campaign video, Trump promised to reinstate his previous executive orders to align the U.S. government's spending on drugs with that of other developed countries. Biden overturned some of Trump's pharmaceutical policies. On the issue of abortion, Trump said in April that he would not sign a federal abortion ban and advocated that the law should be decided by the states.
05 Electric Vehicles
Trump promised to repeal the EPA's new car pollution regulations, which could require that electric vehicles make up as much as two-thirds of the total number of new cars sold in the United States by 2032. Trump said at a rally in Michigan last September that Biden's electric vehicle policies mean the death of the American automotive industry.
I will end the electric vehicle mandate on day one, saving the US auto industry from complete obliteration, which is happening right now, and saving US customers thousands and thousands of dollars per car, Trump said.
When asked about whether he would keep Biden's $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicle purchases, Trump said, I'm not making any final decisions on it.
I'm a big fan of electric cars, but I'm a fan of gasoline-propelled cars, and also hybrids and whatever else happens to come along.
06 Energy
Trump promised to reduce energy prices by increasing domestic production. At several campaign events, he proposed plans to end delays in federal drilling permits and lease approvals.
At a rally in South Carolina in February, he promised to lift restrictions on U.S. natural gas exports.
At a Mar-a-Lago gathering in April, Trump promised to repeal some of Biden's climate policies if oil executives raised $1 billion for his campaign.
As for other energy sources, Trump has also changed his stance on expanding offshore wind farms. Early in his presidency, he included this measure as part of an overall plan to unleash the forces of economic innovation to more fully develop and utilize the ocean economy.
07 Cryptocurrency
Trump has also promoted the development of the U.S. cryptocurrency mining industry, which has become heavily dependent on fossil fuels. Bitcoin mining is an energy-intensive task, as servers need to consume a large amount of electricity to solve a series of complex algorithms to verify transactions and receive cryptocurrency as a reward.
At a cryptocurrency conference in July, the former president promised to facilitate the operations of cryptocurrency mining companies in the United States.
if cryptocurrency is going to shape the future, I want it to be mined, minted, and made in the USA, Trump said, adding that he would create a Strategic National Bitcoin Reserve.
Notably, he also vowed to fire Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler, who has been pushing for regulation of the industry.