US Recession Risk at 93%, Analysts Predict Soft Landing

Monday, Sep 22, 2025 7:41 am ET1min read

UBS warns of a 93% recession probability in the US, with analysts predicting a "soft landing" rather than a collapse. Cooling labor market, building permits drop, shrinking GDP, and consumer spending amidst tariff policy uncertainty contribute to the high probability of recession. While some say the recession has already begun, UBS foresees a prolonged 70s-style stagflation in the near future.

US Recession Risk at 93%, Analysts Predict Soft Landing

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