Rebels Enter Last City Before Damascus: Assad's Weakening and Regional Implications

As the conflict in Syria enters its twelfth year, the rebels' advance on the last city before Damascus, Daraa, signals a significant shift in the power dynamics. This article explores the potential economic and geopolitical implications of this development, drawing on recent reports and data to provide a comprehensive analysis.

The Syrian conflict has had a devastating impact on neighboring countries, with Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon experiencing reduced GDP growth rates and increased poverty. According to the World Bank, the conflict has reduced average annual GDP growth rates by 1.2 to 1.7 percentage points in these countries since 2011. The fallout has been transmitted through multiple channels, including decreasing transit trade through Syria and stalling service exports like tourism.

The rebels' control of key transportation routes and resources in Syria is likely to have significant effects on trade and economic relations with its neighbors. With rebels controlling key routes, trade and economic relations between Syria and its neighbors may further deteriorate, exacerbating the economic impact on these countries.

The rebels' advance towards Damascus could exacerbate political instability and security concerns in neighboring countries, particularly Jordan and Lebanon, which already host significant numbers of Syrian refugees. According to the World Bank, the Syrian conflict has reduced average annual GDP growth rates in Jordan by 1.6 percentage points and in Lebanon by 1.7 percentage points since 2011. A further deterioration in security could lead to increased refugee flows, straining resources and potentially pushing these countries into economic crisis.



The potential long-term economic consequences for neighboring countries, if rebels successfully capture Damascus and establish a new government, are significant. To prepare for such an outcome, neighboring countries should focus on strengthening their economies, enhancing regional cooperation, and investing in infrastructure to accommodate potential refugee influxes and foster economic integration. Additionally, they should engage with the new Syrian government, if established, to promote stability and encourage reconstruction efforts that benefit the entire region.

In conclusion, the rebels' advance on Damascus has the potential to reshape the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East and exacerbate the economic challenges faced by neighboring countries. As the conflict evolves, it is crucial for regional and international actors to remain vigilant and adapt their strategies to address the emerging threats and opportunities.