The Real Reason Why Bitcoin Is Down 14% In 7 Days (And May Go Down More)

Bitcoin's recent 14% decline in seven days has left investors wondering what lies ahead for the world's leading cryptocurrency. While initial market sentiment blamed the downturn on US President Donald Trump's tariffs and the recent Bybit hack, analysts are now pointing to a more structural cause: the unwinding of the cash and carry trade that has been suppressing BTC's price for months.

Kyle Chasse, a crypto analyst, ascribes the ongoing crypto market crash to the unwinding of this trade, which involved hedge funds buying Bitcoin spot ETFs and shorting BTC futures on the CME. This strategy allowed them to farm the spread for an annualized return of approximately 5.68%. However, this trade is now collapsing, causing massive liquidity withdrawals from the market and sending Bitcoin's price into free fall. According to Chasse, hedge funds never bet on Bitcoin's long-term price appreciation. Instead, they were farming a risk-free yield using arbitrage. Now that the trade is dead, they are rapidly pulling liquidity, leaving the market in free fall.



The collapse of the cash and carry trade has led to over $1.9 billion in Bitcoin sold in the past week, marking a significant decline in CME open interest as hedge funds unwind positions. This has also caused a double-digit percentage drop in Bitcoin's price within days. Analysts warn that more cash and carry unwinding is expected, meaning forced selling will continue until all hedge fund positions are cleared. Volatility will likely increase as leveraged positions get liquidated, leading to sharp swings in Bitcoin's price.

If the analyst's perspective is true, Bitcoin would need real, long-term holders to step in and absorb the selling pressure. Technical analysis suggests that Bitcoin's next target could be around $70,000, a key support level that might stabilize the market. Around this level, 6.76 million addresses hold approximately 2.64 million BTC tokens acquired at an average price of $65,296. Therefore, this zone may offer significant support for Bitcoin price, as holders prevent further losses.

The analyst acknowledges that ETF-driven demand was partly real but heavily influenced by arbitrage players looking for quick profits. For now, the market is undergoing a painful but necessary reset. With it, traders and investors should brace for volatility in what could lay the groundwork for Bitcoin's next directional bias.