RCL Crumbles 6.17% as Bearish Reversal Confirms Downtrend Amid Key Support Levels

Candlestick Theory
Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) has exhibited a bearish reversal pattern in recent sessions, marked by a large bearish engulfing candle on January 30, closing at $324.65 (a 6.17% drop from the prior day’s high of $351.57). Key support levels are emerging around $280.32–$291.13 (late January to mid-December lows), while resistance clusters near $314.04–$351.57 (January 29 high and December 2025 peak). The price action suggests exhaustion in the short-term rally, with the recent breakdown below the $345.98–$351.57 resistance zone confirming a shift to bearish momentum.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages (calculated from the 12-month data) indicate a bearish alignment. The 200-day MA (~$315–$320) is likely above the current price, while the 50-day MA (~$330–$335) has crossed below the 200-day MA, forming a “death cross.” The 100-day MA (~$325) is approaching the 200-day MA, reinforcing a medium-term downtrend. Short-term traders may watch for a potential 50-day MA crossover above the 100-day MA as a weak bullish signal, though this is unlikely without a sustained rebound above $340.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has turned negative and is declining, with the MACD line (12-day EMA minus 26-day EMA) below the signal line, suggesting bearish momentum. The KDJ (stochastic oscillator) shows the price near oversold territory (K: ~25, D: ~20), but the J-line is diverging lower, indicating potential for further weakness. A bullish KDJ crossover above the 20 level may hint at a short-term bounce, but the MACD’s bearish bias suggests any rally is likely to be short-lived.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded recently, with the price nearing the lower Bollinger Band ($318.5–$324.65). The 20-day standard deviation has widened due to the sharp correction, but the bands have not yet contracted, implying continued uncertainty. A move back toward the middle band ($320–$330) could signal consolidation, while a break below the lower band may target the next support at $280.32.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume spiked on the January 30 sell-off ($1.09 billion), validating the bearish move. However, volume has declined in subsequent sessions, suggesting waning conviction in the downtrend. A surge in volume during a potential rebound would strengthen the case for a short-term reversal, while muted volume may indicate a lack of buyers at these levels.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI has dipped into oversold territory (~28–30), but the price remains in a strong downtrend. This highlights the caution that oversold readings can persist during sharp corrections. A sustained close above $340–$345 is required to generate a bullish RSI divergence, though this is unlikely without broader market support.

Fibonacci Retracement

Applying Fibonacci levels to the $351.57 high (Jan 29) and $281.11 low (Jan 23), key retracement levels are $330.50 (61.8%), $322.80 (78.6%), and $315.00 (100%). The current price (~$324.65) is near the 50% retracement level, which may act as a pivot point. A break below $322.80 could accelerate the move toward $281.11, while a rebound above $330.50 may test the 61.8% level as a potential support-turned-resistance.

Confluence and Divergences

The strongest confluence is seen at the $320–$325 zone, where the 50-day MA, Fibonacci 50% level, and Bollinger Band lower boundary align. However, divergences exist between the bearish MACD and oversold RSI, suggesting a potential short-term bounce but a high likelihood of resuming the downtrend. Volume patterns also contradict the oversold RSI, indicating the selloff may not yet be exhausted.