RAYUSDT Market Overview: Volatility Spikes as RSI Hits Oversold

• Price fell 14.6% over the last 24 hours, closing near a key support level at $2.798.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions, but volume diverged from price, suggesting weak conviction.
• Volatility expanded significantly as Raydium/Tether broke below a descending trendline.
• Bollinger Bands widened following a sharp selloff, signaling increased uncertainty.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near the 2.85–2.87 resistance zone earlier in the session.

24-Hour Summary for RAYUSDT

Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) opened at $2.976 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $3.007, and a low of $2.783, closing at $2.798 by 12:00 ET. The total trading volume over the last 24 hours was 1,816,708.5, with a notional turnover of $5,180,629.61. The price action suggests increased bearish momentum, supported by a sharp decline and divergence between price and volume in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

The price action over the last 24 hours shows multiple bearish signals, including a bearish engulfing pattern at the top of a consolidation range. A descending trendline was broken decisively in the early hours of 2025-10-07, suggesting a shift in sentiment. A potential support level appears to have formed around $2.80–$2.82, with a recent bounce observed near $2.798. A long lower shadow in the final 15-minute candle suggests some short-term buying interest, but the bearish bias remains strong.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price has been trading below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 20-period MA appears to act as a dynamic resistance, with the price struggling to retrace above it after key dips. On the daily timeframe, the price is well below the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs, indicating continued bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The RSI has dropped into oversold territory, reaching as low as 26 in the final hour of the session. While this typically suggests a potential reversal, the lack of strong volume and confirmation from the MACD (which remains in negative territory) weakens this signal. The MACD histogram has been shrinking in the bearish phase, indicating waning downward momentum, though this may be premature given the sharpness of the decline.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly following the large selloff, indicating heightened volatility. The price has been trading near the lower band for much of the session, which supports the idea of oversold conditions. A potential rebound is possible if the price finds support at $2.798–$2.80, though a breakdown below that level could open the door to further downside.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume surged during the early hours of the selloff, particularly around the $2.90–$2.85 level, indicating increased selling pressure. However, turnover began to wane as the price approached the $2.80 level, suggesting that sellers may be running out of steam. A divergence between price and volume in the final 15-minute candle further signals potential exhaustion on the downside.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the most recent 15-minute swing (from $2.988 to $2.97), the price found support at the 61.8% level around $2.976 and again at the $2.965–$2.973 range. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level of the larger move from $2.988 to $2.798 is around $2.86–$2.87, where earlier resistance is now potential support in the event of a rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish structure and oversold RSI, a potential strategy could involve a short entry on a breakout below the $2.798 support level, with a stop placed just above the 2.81–2.82 range. A target for the short could be based on the Fibonacci extension at 161.8%, which projects to around $2.70–$2.72. The MACD and volume divergence suggest that the bearish move might still have legs, particularly if buyers fail to defend the $2.80–$2.82 level. However, given the weak volume confirmation and the proximity to a key support, a cautious approach is advised, with tight stop-loss placement.